Islamic State News & Analysis

Geopolitics Weekly (US-Israel Iran War, Food Prices, THAAD Redeployment)

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Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, the impact that the conflict is having on global food prices, what the redeployment of THAAD ‘parts’ from South Korea to the Middle East tells us about the war, and a wave of brutal attacks against military bases in northeast Nigeria.

Geopolitics Weekly (Trump and Venezuela, Syria Assassinations, China’s Treasury Dump)

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This week we examine Trump’s embrace of the Chavista regime in Venezuela, reports of multiple assassination attempts targeting President al-Shaara in Syria, Beijing’s accelerating efforts to offload US debt, and new indications in Europe and Canada of a fundamental realignment in global defense industries.

Geopolitics Weekly (EU Critical Minerals, Nigeria Attacks, US Syria Withdrawal)

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This week we examine warning signs that EU critical minerals policy is falling short in its diversification efforts, ISIS-linked attacks in Nigeria and how they reflect a widening band of Sahel instability, the assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in Libya, winners and losers in a potential US withdrawal from Syria, and an emphatic election win for Sanae Takaichi’s LDP in Japan.

Geopolitics Weekly (Ukraine Shadow Fleet, ISIS Strikes, Thai-Cambodia Conflict)

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This week we examine the expanding quantity and range of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian shadow fleet tankers, a US ‘declaration of vengeance’ against ISIS in Syria, and how the Thai-Cambodia conflict reflects a global system in flux.

The Collapse of al-Assad’s Syria, One Year On

cc White House, modified, President of the United States Donald Trump with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President of Syria Ahmed al-Sharaa during Donald Trump's state visit to Saudi Arabia. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Donald_Trump_with_Saudi_Crown_Prince_Mohammed_Bin_Salman_and_President_of_Syria_Ahmed_al-Sharaa_%282025%29.jpg

From Camp Bucca to the People's Palace in Damascus: How the West created President Julani.

China’s Wakhan Corridor Dilemma: Economic Development or Security?

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China is moving forward on the development of the Wakhan Corridor, creating a direct land link with Afghanistan. Yet the slow pace of cooperation reflects justified concerns over the security of the route.

Ghost of the Caliphate: How Africa Became the Global Epicenter of the Islamic State

Maradi, Niger. Nigerien army soldiers from the 322nd Parachute Regiment practice field tactics during combat training facilitated by U.S. Army Soldiers during exercise Flintlock 2007. The multi-national exercise, which is part of the U.S. State Department's Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership, is an ongoing and long standing military-to-military relationship between Niger and the U.S. that provides an interactive exchange of military, linguistic and intercultural skills for both. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Niger_Army_322nd_Parachute_Regiment.jpg

The physical "caliphate" of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria collapsed years ago, but its apparition failed to disappear, instead finding new life in local conflicts across Africa.

The Message Matters: Lessons from a Decade of Islamic State Social Media Campaigning

Abstraction of someone reading their smart phone in the dark. Generated by Google Gemini on August 1, 2025.

Considerable insight has been gained on countering the recruitment and radicalization efforts of groups like Islamic State on social media over the past decade. But there’s still a lot of work to be done.

AQ and Islamic State Ramp Up Vernacular Propaganda in India

cc Vyacheslav Argenberg, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=500&offset=0&profile=default&search=india+gate&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Delhi,_India,_India_Gate.jpg

Al Qaeda and Islamic State are ramping up their India-centric propaganda – a trend that has been particularly pronounced since the fall of the Hasina regime in Bangladesh.

Breeding Grounds of Extremism: How Syria Refugee Camps Fuel Radicalization

cc Y. Boechat (VOA), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VOA_in_Al-Hol_Camp,_Syria,_17_October_2019.jpg

There is a risk of history repeating itself as Syria refugee camps incubate a new generation of potential recruits for Islamic State and other extremist outfits.

The Future of the Anti-Islamic State Coalition in Iraq

cc DVIDSHUB, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/dvids/5473988018/in/photolist-9kHBVL-6qHv69-RNKgg5-2muYfhy-2o1DDoa-2eq7vbd-RQXAm3-2iJ7Ffx-2o1JwGY-2nrwotU-bBbZaX-2cw8mMR-29gMpro-2nrqZip-2nrxtZ2-2hzp4eS-boh6Ju-2nrwdYz-29U79uz-2gUhgNH-2nrxrA4-2hmSiv2-2nrxkgW-2hxJ5Yo-2nrwfw9-2nrr4vh-2nrr4GK-2nrxsXs-2nrwm7p-2nrxmov-2nrwfiy-2nrwndT-2nrqQYU-2nrqVnP-2nrxgTi-24u4LZc-2nrwkJR-2nrqZUp-2nrwfng-2nrxjpA-2nrxrQ7-2nrweHv-2nrxnAf-2nrqVso-7zqt4E-ebyJvy-2dnECSu-2keHqqF-2nrqNDt-2nrw8bn - 101017-N-4965F-086 MOSUL, Iraq - Members of the Iraqi 6th Emergency Response Battalion conduct weapons training under the supervision of U.S. Special Operations Forces on Oct. 17. Members of the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Arabian Peninsula (CJSOTF-AP) advise, train, and assist the Iraqi Security Forces during Operation New Dawn. (Photo by U.S. Navy Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class James E. Foehl)

The coalition against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, having largely completed its mission, is increasingly viewed as a liability in Baghdad.

Deconstructing the New Clarion Call for Ghazwa-e-Hind against India

cc Flickr My Past, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/urnes/2663808130

Why has one of India’s most wanted terrorists suddenly reappeared after a 17-year absence?

Will the Makassar Suicide Bombing Spark a New Wave of Terror in Indonesia?

cc Kepolisian Negara Republik Indonesia, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Polisi_officers_lineup.jpg

After a married couple linked to Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) bombed a Catholic church in Sulawesi, Indonesia is on high alert to prevent repeat attacks by Islamist militants.

ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique

PEMBA, Mozambique (Jan. 29, 2019) General of the Army Lazaro Menete, chief of staff of the Mozambican Armed Forces, speaks during the opening ceremony of exercise Cutlass Express 2019 in Pemba, Mozambique, Jan. 29, 2019. Cutlass Express is designed to improve regional cooperation, maritime domain awareness and information sharing practices to increase capabilities between the U.S., East African and Western Indian Ocean nations to counter illicit maritime activity. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Kyle Steckler/Released), cc Flickr modified, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet, https://flickr.com/photos/cne-cna-c6f/46004465185/in/photolist-2kNQP1b-2h7cNbz-8uNQKo-7WrvjL-9ptDm4-9s7aPC-8uNPNs-8uKMLK-8EqYsv-8EqYkH-8Eu8zd-7Wofq6-8uNPLJ-8vgTKg-8uKLGt-6tCvpF-8uNR1o-8uKMkt-8uKN4r-8uKLDc-8ygV66-8yjYqJ-8uKKTx-8uKNiK-nSVh8c-8uKLt6-8uNQYG-8uNQH9-8uKNav-8uNPk3-8uKLBc-9phppg-8uNPX9-9s4bCX-9s4bR8-9s4bzR-8ygUZV-cXEWDW-cXEWpm-RhoVPm-cXEWdo-cXEVVL-2d6fUpB-2d6fUJe-cXEW6b-cXEW2o-cXEWjm-cXEVSu-9qhgiS

Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique.

The Limits of Military Intelligence in the Sahel

cc Flickr U.S. Embassy Ouagadougo, modiifed, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/, https://www.flickr.com/photos/usembassybf/48190281641/in/photolist-2jHFG9d-Hjdpaw-2iY91f8-2iY91hT-2dQKZB4-2dQKZKk-2f9YfAu-2gqq6UM-2gr1YSv-2gqpMNR-2gqpNHb-2gqq5pn

In the absence of a multilateral approach targeting transnational factors destabilizing the Sahel, even the best military intelligence won’t be enough to stem the tide of extremism.

Family Ties and New Recruits: Abu Sayyaf Proves Hard to Dislodge in the Philippines

Military honors bestowed on 15 AFP soldiers killed in combat against Abu Sayyaf in 2016, public domain, ROBINSON NIÑAL/PPD, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_15_gallant_soldiers_killed_in_combat_with_the_Abu_Sayyaf_in_Sulu_are_given_full_military_honors.jpg

It was hoped the defeat of Abu Sayyaf and their Maute allies in Marawi in October 2017 would extinguish the threat of Islamist militancy in the Philippines. Three years later, ISIS-affiliated groups remain active.

Assessing President Duterte’s Controversial New Anti-Terror Law

cc Flickr Republic of Korea, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

The president’s supporters maintain the law is necessary for combating terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf. Detractors worry that it could further chip away at the foundation of the Philippines’ democratic character.

Islamic State and Al-Qaeda Clash in the Sahel

Operation Flintlock training in 2018, cc Flickr USAFRICOM, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Background on the worsening clashes between Al Qaeda and Islamic State’s regional affiliates in the Sahel.

In the Southern Philippines, Delays to Rebuilding Marawi Threaten a Fragile Peace

Officials visit the Main Battle Area in Marawi, cc Philippine Information Agency, modfied, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=marawi&fulltext=Search&fulltext=Advanced+search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&advanced=1&searchToken=2n7ygrhzxiej9o2zrc9ig7gka#%2Fmedia%2FFile%3AMarawi_Ground_Zero.jpg

The longer Marawi is left in ruins, the higher the chance that history could repeat itself.

How the Islamic State Fractures Afghanistan’s Peace Prospects

U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Jason Geranen, of 2nd Battalion, 82nd Aviation Brigade (Long Range Surveillance Detachment), engages a Taliban fighting positions with an AT4 rocket near the village of Allah Say, Afghanistan, Aug. 21, 2007. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Michael L. Casteel) www.army.mil

ISIS-K wants to undermine any Afghan peace prospects. To achieve this, ISIS-K relies on a strategy of intimidation and division.

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