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Europe

Ukraine Strikes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker in Mediterranean

What Happened

Ukraine has attacked and disabled a Russian shadow fleet tanker off the coast of Libya, some 2,000 km from Ukrainian borders. The operation is believed to be the first time the Ukraine has executed a hexacopter drone-based strike in the Mediterranean.

Why It Matters

Operating a network of hundreds if not thousands, it’s unlikely that Friday’s strike in and of itself will hobble Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers. The Oman-flagged ‘Qenchi’ was empty at the time of the strike, minimizing the potential for ecological damage. It had been operating between ports in India and Russia.

The strike is notable in that it expands the zone in which Ukraine is able to threaten Russia’s oil interests. Such attacks have been more common in the Black Sea, particularly of late, with three Ukrainian attacks occurring over the first two weeks of December. Operational details remain scant, but the drones would need to have been launched and controlled from some forward position, either at sea or over land given range limitations.

These shadow fleet strikes strike at the heart of the Russian economy in the hope of inducing Moscow to end the war. Yet so far they do not appear to be moving the needle, with Vladimir Putin returning to some of the maximalist rhetoric that characterized the early phase of the war.

Peter Beaumont’s latest at the Guardian makes for good supplemental reading. Among other things, the article examines how the increase in kinetic operations targeting energy supply chains reflects an overall breakdown in the efficacy of US sanctions, as also pointed out in last week’s mailer.