At the core of the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute is a significant asymmetry in military power. Thailand possesses one of the most capable armed forces in Southeast Asia, with a defense budget exceeding $5.5 billion, over 360,000 active personnel, a fleet of F-16 multirole fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and thousands of armored vehicles and artillery systems. Cambodia, by contrast, fields a far more limited military capacity: a $1.3 billion budget supporting approximately 124,000 troops, a small number of tanks, and no fighter aircraft, with air and naval forces primarily geared toward transport and patrol functions.
This disparity reduces the likelihood of a large-scale war. Any attempt by Cambodia to dislodge entrenched Thai positions along the disputed border would almost certainly fail in conventional military terms. This constraint has played out repeatedly in past confrontations, most recently during the flare-up on 24 July 2025 at the Ta Moan Thom temple complex, where Cambodian artillery strikes were met with Thai F-16 airstrikes.
Nonetheless, Cambodia continues to engage in skirmishes. These are likely calculated maneuvers intended to achieve political and psychological objectives. Cambodia has been employing asymmetric tactics: low-risk, high-visibility actions like drone incursions or brief artillery exchanges, intending to apply pressure, generate nationalist fervor, and maintain international visibility on the dispute (without inviting a full-scale military response).
The nature of the disputed territories further complicates the matter. Many of the contested zones, such as Preah Vihear and Ta Moan Thom, contain ancient Khmer temples that are culturally significant to both Cambodians and Thais. While Thailand holds effective control over most of these areas, Cambodia claims them as historical possessions based on colonial-era maps and heritage arguments. These sites thus function as both geographic flashpoints and emotional symbols, making their control politically sensitive.
Cambodia’s Internal Power Struggles Invite Confrontation
Beyond territorial claims, Cambodia’s border provocations must be understood within the dynamics of domestic political consolidation. The Cambodian state is ruled by the long-dominant Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), now led by Prime Minister Hun Manet, the son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen. The elder Hun ruled for nearly four decades and continues to wield significant influence as Senate president and party leader.
Hun Manet, a West Point graduate and former general, ascended to the premiership in 2023 amid elite rivalries and has frequently been called on to assert his authority over competing political factions. In this context, the conflict with Thailand provides a useful instrument of domestic legitimacy. By adopting a firm nationalist stance and positioning himself as a defender of Cambodian sovereignty, Hun Manet strengthens his personal authority and unites nationalist constituencies under the CPP banner.
