Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Is the GCC Ready for War? The High Stakes of Confronting Iran

A United Arab Emirates Air Force pilot walks to his Mirage 2000-9 on the Nellis Air Force Base flight line Jan. 23, 2013. More than 160 UAEAF pilots, maintainer and support people are participating in Red and Green Flag exercises. (U.S. Air Force photo by Lawrence Crespo) / https://www.acc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/199676/photos-usaf-allied-forces-continue-red-flag-exercise/

Gulf leaders are being forced to decide whether to remain in a defensive posture or join offensive operations against Iran to reestablish credibility. The wrong move could lock the region into a cycle of infrastructure warfare that lasts years.

Geopolitics of the GIUK Gap: Past, Present, and Future

GIUK Gap; Made with geographical data from Natural Earth.

The GIUK Gap – a mainstay of 20th century naval strategy – is taking on new importance amid mounting Russian naval activity, Arctic expansion, and emerging hybrid threats.

Iron Beam Laser: Israel’s Answer to the Drone Revolution

Generated by Google Gemini AI on December 17, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The Iron Beam is a new laser-based system that hopes to narrow the cost asymmetries between cheap drones and expensive interceptors. If it lives up to the hype, it could usher in a new era in air defenses.

Siliguri Corridor: The Achilles’ Heel of India

cc Aksveer, modified, Rafale at Aero India 2017 / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rafale_at_Aero_India_2017.jpg

Barely 20 kilometers wide at its narrowest, the Siliguri Corridor is India’s sole land link to its northeast. Hemmed in by foreign borders and overshadowed by rival powers, it is a place where geography becomes destiny and unity rests on the most fragile of threads.

Taiwan in Japan’s Strategic Perspective: Gateway to Tokyo’s Backyard

cc 海上自衛隊, modified, 訓練中の海自隊員 / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JS_Bungo_and_JS_Etajima_conducted_goodwill_exercise_with_Seychelles_patrol_vessel_PS_Andromache_on_24_March_2025_off_the_coast_of_Victoria_-_5.jpg

Taiwan matters to Japan: economically, diplomatically, and strategically. But while Tokyo cannot detach itself from Taiwan’s fate, neither can it afford to become too tightly bound to outcomes it does not control.

Permanent Partition? Frontline Hardens in Sudan Civil War

On January 24, 2025, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this true-color image of black smoke pouring from the location of an oil refinery located east of the White Nile River in Sudan. The dark plume was the result of a fire at the Al-Jaili refinery, which is located about 60 kilometers (40 miles) north of Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan and home to more than 6.5 million people. Strong winds carried the dense smoke more than 182 kilometers (113 miles) southward, passing over Khartoum where skies darkened from the smoke and noxious plume. Oil refineries handle a number of potentially dangerous chemicals, including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, and many other harmful substances. Exposure to smoke can cause respiratory problems, irritation of the skin and eyes, and headache in the short term. Long term exposure can result in kidney, liver, and nervous system. The fire is the result of fighting between Sudan’s military and rebel Rapid Support Force (RSF) who are engaged in a brutal civil war that begin in April 2023. The refinery, which is owned by Sudan’s government and the state-run China National Petroleum Corporation, was overtaken by RSF shortly after the start of the fighting. It has been attacked repeatedly, with both sides blaming the other for the disastrous fire caused by this latest assault on the refinery. The Al-Jaili refinery has been in operation since 2000 and was designed to produce 100,000 barrels a day, supplying roughly 45 percent of Sudan’s needs. Since the start of the conflict, output has been significantly reduced and accurate estimates of damage from the current blaze are not yet available. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Refinery_Fire_in_Sudan_(MODIS_2025-01-26).jpg

Both the SAF and RSF may accept a short-term truce owing to international pressure or tactical regrouping, but neither will make the concessions required for lasting peace. The current partition of Sudan is here to stay.

China–Taiwan War: How an Invasion Could Unfold

cc 總統府, modified, The ROC Air Force dispatches four F-16 fighter jets and two IDF jets to escort President Tsai’s chartered plane. (President Tsai embarks on a trip codenamed the

Across the narrow strait separating Taiwan from China lies a question that could define the century: what happens when deterrence fails? This article examines how a war could play out.

Trump’s C5+1 Gamble: Can America Reclaim Central Asia?

cc White House, President Donald Trump hosts a dinner with leaders of C5 Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-hosts-a-dinner-with-leaders-of-c5-central-asian-countries-in-the-east-room-of-the-white-house/

The C5+1 Summit is the latest of many historical attempts by Washington to engage with Central Asia, this time driven by growing great power competition and a need to diversify critical mineral supply chains. Could this time be different than the abortive initiatives of the past?

Setting a Precedent: US War on Drugs Reboots in Latin America

Ships from the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and Hellenic Navy frigate HS Navarinon (F 461) sail in formation in the Mediterranean Sea, Dec. 31, 2023. The ships from the GRFCSG include the first-in-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile USS The Sullivans (DDG 68), USS Bulkeley (DDG 84), and USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119). The ships from the Bataan ARG include the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Bataan (LHD 5), the San Antonio Class-class amphibious transport dock USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19), Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ship USS Carter Hall (LSD 50). The U.S. maintains forward deployed, ready, and postured forces to deter aggression and support security and stability around the world. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Maxwell Orlosky)

It’s not the volume of Washington’s drug boat strikes that’s most important – it’s the precedent they set for future military action. This forecast examines the diplomatic, economic, and military risk factors inherent to President Trump’s militarized approach to counter-narcotics.

US–China Trade Truce Redux: Risks Behind the Busan Deal

President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping , modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-participates-in-a-bilateral-meeting-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping/

The Busan framework illustrates a new phase in US–China relations: one defined not by resolution or reconciliation, but by management of rivalry.

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