China Economy News & Analysis

Predictive Illusion: Lessons from China’s Economic Trajectory

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The ‘ceteris paribus’ assumption of long-term forecasting tends to blind analysts to inevitable shifts in the political sphere, and nowhere is this more apparent than with China projections.

CBDC with Chinese Characteristics: Political Economy of the E-Yuan

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Exploring the potential geoeconomic impacts of the world’s most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC), China’s e-yuan.

US Answer to China Economic Challenge Starts at Home

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Sound industrial and geopolitically-minded policy is needed to shore up US competitiveness in the face of the challenges posed by China’s economy – not tariffs.

China Deflation Flashes Warning Sign in World’s Second-Largest Economy

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The September economic data has not been kind to China: deflation and export stagnation, generating new calls for the authorities to implement fiscal stimulus measures before price drops become further entrenched.

Stimulus Bets Send China Stock Markets into Frenzy

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China stock markets are experiencing wild swings as traders place bets on new stimulus announcements from Beijing. Yet little has changed regarding the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.

Foreign Firms Confront Escalating Challenges in China Market

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As policy, economic, and geopolitical challenges mount, foreign firms are finding it harder to make money in the China market than a decade ago.

Where the Chinese Economy Goes, Oil Markets Follow

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With economic growth slowed by wealth declines and flagging labor productivity, the Chinese economy is unable to be the engine for global oil markets that it once was.

The Party Is Over for China’s Steel Industry

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Absent a new infrastructure or construction boom at home, China’s steel industry is projected to contract as the export markets that recently sustained it close their doors.

Sagging Real Estate and Bad Debts: China’s Banking System Risk

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China’s banking system is shouldering the burden of a struggling real estate market, but there’s only so much pressure it can take before the risk becomes systemic.

Past Is Precedent as Xi Struggles to Fix China’s Economy

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Beijing’s response to structural economic headwinds has been more of the same, with the oft-cited goal of consumer-driven growth as elusive as ever.

China Economy in 2023: The Year in Review

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China’s state authorities are projecting confidence as they hope for a rebound, but the structural contradictions that thwarted economic growth in 2023 still loom large over the year to come.

China’s Export Ban on Semiconductor Inputs

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China's restrictions on gallium and germanium exports threaten to impact the wider global semiconductor industry.

China Economy Enters the Post-Stimulus Era

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Beijing has kept the stimulus valve turned off despite a slew of negative economic signs. Has China’s long-predicted economic transition to a consumption-fueled growth model finally dawned?

Import Dependency and China’s Food Security

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Xi Jinping has made reducing dependency on Western food imports a priority but, given China’s finite amount of arable land, this is not a problem that’s easily solved.

China Population Decline Marks End of an Economic Era

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China’s population recorded its first official decline since 1961, and the country’s economic model may never be the same.

China Economy in 2023: Darkness before the Dawn?

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COVID-19 is hammering China’s economic activity, but analysts are citing a potential boom in the second half of 2023.

China: Dismal Trade Data Hints at Downturn

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A sharp drop in imports and exports suggests that the internal and external engines of the Chinese economy are failing.

China-Africa Relations in Review

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Contrary to popular belief, the value of Africa to contemporary Chinese statecraft is overwhelmingly political rather than economic.

China Covid Protests: Xi’s Largest Test Yet

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If the past is any guide, the hammer is about to come down on China’s Covid protestors.

Beijing Throws a Lifeline to Beleaguered Real Estate Developers

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Amid worsening economic indicators, Beijing has partially reversed its attempt to reign in real estate excess. But is the damage already done?

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