China’s demographic decline is a tale long foretold by the country’s aging population, low birthrate, lack of outside immigration, and the legacy of the one-child policy. But it wasn’t meant to happen quite so soon.
The latest census data from China shows that the national population has dipped for the first time since 1961, reaching 1.41175 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion the year before. The release confirms a new normal of population decline after decades of demographic and economic growth. The reversal has been heavily hinted at in recent years, if not openly acknowledged by the authorities – at least until now.
Official recognition confirms that China’s demographic inflection point has arrived far ahead of schedule. The United Nations, for example, had previously projected the peak at 2027. China policymakers were also caught by surprise: the 2016 five-year plan originally foresaw a 2020 population of 1.42 billion, bolstered by an expected birth bump following the relaxation of the one-child policy. China’s population stood at 1.38 billion in 2015.
The decline marks the advent of a demographic trend that will continue reverberate through China’s economy – and society – for decades to come.
Analysis
Population growth remains a perennial economic concern for governments around the world. Declines in absolute population mean fewer new workers to replace the old ones who are retiring and becoming dependent on state and/or family assistance. This dynamic – amplified by the tendency of retirees to live ever-longer lives– is nothing new, and has unfolded in other advanced economies, particularly the West, for much of the post-industrial era.
Yet there is an important distinction to be made when comparing China to Western countries: the difference in immigration policy. Western countries can make up for demographic shortfalls by increasing their immigration quotas; China, in the current social-political context, cannot. This is how a country like Canada can maintain a growing population despite an abysmal birth rate of 1.40 births per woman (the 2020 birth rate represented a record low, down from 3.94 in 1959). In 2021, Canada welcomed 401,000 new permanent residents – a record high. Overall, it’s projected that immigrants could represent anywhere from 29-34% of the Canadian population by 2041, a ratio that will help to sustain population growth despite an aging Canadian workforce.
Without an influx of immigrants to offset natural decline, China’s demographic outlook is viewed as cause for serious concern by the authorities, despite a birth rate that’s relatively higher than many other demographically ‘healthy’ advanced economies.
