Reports emerged about a week ago that US intelligence suspected Kim Jong-un may be fighting for his life following a surgical procedure. Now, despite denials from China, Russia, and even President Trump, Kim Jong-un remains missing in action.

Is there any truth to the rumors, and if the supreme leader is incapacitated, who will step in to take his place?

How these questions are answered will ultimately determine whether the strategic equilibrium of the Korean Peninsula will remain intact. The stakes could not be higher, as an unorderly collapse or splintering of the DPRK regime risks massive refugee flows, protracted civil conflict, and even regional and/or nuclear war.

Analysis

For the sake of this analysis, an assumption is made that the intelligence in question bears some degree of accuracy. This is not necessarily true, and there have been several times in the past where similar suggestions of mortal danger have ultimately proven unfounded. One stand-out is from 2014, when Kim disappeared for several months without a word of explanation from state media organs.

However, this instance should be monitored closely if anything because the initial intelligence revelation came on the heels of Kim missing the birthday celebrations for Kim Il-sung in mid-April, which normally represents a significant event on the DPRK propaganda calendar.

Kim’s last appearance on state media was on April 11.

South Korea has pushed back on the initial intelligence out of the United States indicating that Kim was in “grave danger,” with a government official saying that the health issue wasn’t so serious.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Kim did require cardiovascular surgery, as reporting from Daily NK suggests. The leader is overweight, a notorious chain-smoker and, if you believe the tabloids, able to mow through 10 bottles of wine in one sitting. Moreover, members of the Kim dynasty have long suffered from heart problems and diabetes; his father suffered multiple strokes and his grandfather died from a heart attack. The aforementioned months-long absence in 2014 was also apparently down to health problems, as Kim was seen limping soon before his disappearance and was using a cane when he eventually re-emerged.