North Korea Conflict

The Cycle Begins Anew in North Korea

cc Flickr Trump White House Archiv, modified, - https://flickr.com/photos/whitehouse45/48164810697/in/photolist-2goafbD-2go9QQe-2go9QNa-2goafha-2goag4L-2gnYrsU-2gnY3MH-2aR2qYA-2goafGP-pSTvKQ-2goafZx-2goafpE-2gnY3ST-2goag2S-2goag2G-2gnY3YE-2gnY456-2goagdD-2go9RvT-2goafzj-2go9R3i-2goafTW-2goafKu-2gnY4ZH-ie9ze1-2mfuTRq-2gnY3Ei-2go9Rhr-ipgfMY-ZdaiQC-Hr72GK-oRNy4u-XTrPoc-DCDdaA-JebySr-27T1Mvn-26vpRWp-JebyFV-22VpJBT-2hbYJJS-p3iVta-2iMfX34-2icKqSQ-2i8kJFZ-cmgzT9-DwgyR4-RUXCeS-24n4jRR-ec4Epu-SPh8Jb

A desperate regime gives rise to hope and ultimately bitter disappointment, as the diplomatic cycle on the Korean Peninsula churns forward once again.

Outlook 2021: Korean Peninsula Tensions

GPM-placeholder-outlook-1

Will inter-Korean tensions be dialed up or dialed down in the year ahead?

North Korea’s Nuclear Coercion as Diplomatic Statecraft

cc Flickr CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

Calls in the United States to reassess strategic patience reflect major advances in North Korea’s nuclear diplomacy.

North Korea Plays the Dare Game with Seoul

cc Flickr White House, modified, public domain

With a parliamentary majority and years left on his term, it’s now or never for President Moon Jae-In to realize his vision of unification.

Where in the World Is Kim Jong-Un?

Kim Jong-Un, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60363

Where is Kim Jong-un? And if he’s incapacitated, who will replace him?

North Korean Cognitive Dissonance in Western Academia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un poses for pictures with female pilots as he provides field guidance to the flight drill of female pilots of pursuit planes of the KPA Air and Anti-Air Force in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang November 28, 2014. cc Flickr Robert Sullivan, modified, public domain, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and nowhere is this truer than with regards to US policy toward North Korea.

North Korea and US Diplomacy: Toward a New Paradigm

public domain, Executive Office of USA, modified, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kim_and_Trump_shaking_hands_at_the_red_carpet_during_the_DPRK%E2%80%93USA_Singapore_Summit.jpg

With both sides advancing radically different expectations, a breakthrough will remain elusive over the short-term.

North Korea Tests Defense Shield-Busting Short-Range Missile

Aegis missile launch, cc Flickr U.S. Missile Defense Agency, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/. May 16, 2013 - A Standard Missile – 3 (SM-3) Block 1B interceptor is launched from the USS LAKE ERIE (CG 70) during a Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Navy test in the mid-Pacific. The SM-3 Block 1B successfully intercepted a target missile that had been launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. Following target launch, the LAKE ERIE detected and tracked the target with its onboard AN/SPY-1 radar. The ship, equipped with the second-generation Aegis BMD weapon system, developed a fire control solution and launched the SM-3 Block 1B. The intercept occurred a few minutes later. Today’s event was the third consecutive successful intercept test of the SM-3 Block IB missile. To learn more, visit www.mda.mil/system/aegis_bmd.html.

In sharp contrast to the United States’ blasé attitude toward recent missile tests by Pyongyang, Japan is increasingly alarmed.

Trump’s East Asia Headache: South Korea-Japan Spat Deepens

President Moon, Prime MInister ABe, and Vice President Pence, cc S. Herman (Voice of America), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shinzo_Abe,_Moon_Jae-in,_Pence_in_Pyeongchang.png

Historical animosities are devolving into a full-fledged trade war between key US allies in East Asia.

The Eclipsing of Moon Jae-in

South Korea President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump, CC Flickr White House, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

Upon assuming the presidency in 2017, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in had two major goals. He has achieved neither of them.

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