After a détente of sorts in recent years, inter-Korean relations took a turn for the worse in 2020. Tensions reached their height in June, when North Korea blew up a joint liaison office with the South in the border town of Kaesong, after being angered by defectors sending messages across the border via helium-filled balloons. The practice had earlier prompted Pyongyang to cut all communication with South Korea, amid rumors over the health of Kim Jong-un and increasingly aggravated rhetoric from his sister, Kim Yo-jong.

Donald Trump’s election loss in November is surely a cause of further annoyance to the ruling Kim family, despite talks with the US having soured long before. President Trump’s personal diplomacy afforded North Korea an opportunity to project equivalency with its superpower foe and claim a measure of legitimacy on the world stage. In 2021, with Joe Biden entering the Oval Office, the US may opt to return to the ‘‘strategic patience’’ of the Obama administration. As tensions resurface, what does the year ahead hold for the Korean Peninsula?

Forecast

Deteriorating inter-Korean ties

Relations between the two Koreas had shown signs of progress following 2018. South Korean president Moon Jae-in has pursued closer engagement with the North, aiming to boost diplomatic and trade ties—and this softer approach gained traction after the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, which marked a high-point in the frosty relationship endured by the two Koreas since the Korean War ended with an armistice in 1953. Moon recently called for a declaration to end the frozen conflict, which concluded without a peace deal.

However, South Korean efforts to maintain policy momentum have failed, as a reciprocal charm offensive from the North has given way to hostility. The North Korean military has reinstalled guard posts and stated its intention to deploy more forces and resume exercises along the demilitarized zone dividing it from the South. Most of Pyongyang’s ire has been directed at ‘‘Southern propaganda’’ in the form of materials floated across the border attached to balloons, which have routinely been launched by defector groups.