The geopolitical fallout from drought is slow and cumulative; these are slow-burn disasters that stay out of the news until their worst effects are felt. What begins as a minor crop disruption one year can spiral into an agricultural disaster the next should disruptive weather patterns persist. Similarly, on the individual level, a small-but-manageable caloric reduction can end in disaster as household items and capital are gradually sold off to purchase food, effectively mortgaging the economic future of a families and whole communities. These shocks can erode faith in political institutions, generate sectarian conflict over dwindling resources, and even trigger civil wars.

2020 brought new extreme weather events, which disrupted agriculture and produced run-on political, economic, and humanitarian impacts around the world. But the year also ushered in the COVID-19 pandemic, which compounded the fiscal challenges of governments attempting to respond to agricultural disasters.

Though there’s reason to believe that COVID-19 will be on the wane by the time 2021 is over, erratic weather patterns and disrupted agricultural output will persist. Here are some countries to watch in the year ahead:

Outlook

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has been wracked by drought for nearly three years running. In fact, the country featured in last year’s drought outlook, which highlighted, in the words of one WFP official, an extreme drought that was “unlike any that we have seen in a long time.”

But it’s not just drought that the people of Zimbabwe must endure. Climate-related disasters are mixing with social ones to produce instability and hunger. Some such disasters include: poor water access, economic mismanagement, low agricultural productivity, lack of finance, and HIV/AIDs. Severe weather events have also heaped further misery onto the people, namely 2019’s Cyclone Idai, which destroyed homes, displaced thousands, and flooded farmland in eastern Zimbabwe.

Consecutive years of drought are now fueling a water crisis as farmers are forced to heavily rely on groundwater amid dwindling surface reserves (which are more susceptible to evaporation). This has constrained the drinking water supply of rural populations, and the problem will only get worse as rainfall levels aren’t enough to replenish the groundwater supplies currently being relied on. Water shortages also restrict irrigation, threatening untold livelihoods in a workforce that is overwhelmingly engaged in agricultural production.