**For more background information, see this week’s Russia-Ukraine Naval Clash off of Crimea.

Our initial situation report concluded that it was impossible to assign blame at the onset of the Kerch crisis, and that subsequent events would shed light on the motivations involved.

These events have not disappointed.

It appears as though Moscow is, if not actively precipitating the rising tensions, then definitely rolling with the punches and seizing an opportunity to turn the screws on Kiev. The Kremlin chose the most incendiary route available in parading the captured Ukrainian sailors on television and jailing them for 60 days, keeping their fate in play for the election cycle in spring of next year. Moscow has also continued to spin the naval clash and martial law declaration as a calculated power grab by Poroshenko, suggesting the incident might be part of a Kremlin plan to undercut the Ukrainian president’s already feeble support base and influence upcoming elections. The crisis could also have the effect of bolstering Putin’s domestic appeal at a time when polls show flagging support over pension reform.