Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

China’s Quiet Threat to Russia: Espionage Rattles the Far East

cc kremlin.ru; http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74052, modified,

Russia’s focus on its western front in Ukraine is leaving its eastern flank more exposed to Chinese espionage and strategic probing. This silent power struggle is reshaping the dynamics of the Sino-Russian partnership, with China seeking to exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities.

West Africa Kush Crisis: How Synthetic Drugs Undermine States

Nearly 1,000 Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces personnel completed training for an upcoming African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deployment, May 20. (U.S. Army Africa photo)

The rise of ‘kush,’ a cheap and deadly synthetic drug, is fueling crime, weakening governments, and reshaping global drug trafficking networks.

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb: Striking Deep into Russia

cc Maxim Subotin, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PUNISHER_DRONE_held_by_Ukrainian_soldier.jpg

Examining how Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes targeted Russia’s bomber fleet, revealing the evolving structure and limits of asymmetric warfare.

Golden Dome: Strategic Blowback from an ‘Untouchable’ United States

President Trump announces the Golden Dome missile defense system; cc whitehouse.gov, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-trump-announces-the-golden-dome-missile-defense-system/

If realized, Washington’s space-based missile shield could reshape deterrence, upend alliances, and redefine security in a new era of orbital warfare.

UK-EU Defense Pact: Strategic Shift or Stopgap Fix?

cc Number 10, modified, Flickr - https://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/54038538604

Examining whether the UK-EU security deal represents lasting strategic alignment or rather a short-term response to global instability and US strategic retreat.

Disruptive Maritime Tech and the Future of Naval Power

230913-N-N3764-1001 NAVAL STATION KEY WEST, Fl. - (Sept. 13, 2023) -- Commercial operators deploy Saildrone Voyager Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) out to sea in the initial steps of U.S. 4th Fleet’s Operation Windward Stack during a launch from Naval Air Station Key West’s Mole Pier and Truman Harbor, Sept. 13, 2023. Operation Windward Stack is part of 4th Fleet’s unmanned integration campaign, which provides the Navy a region to experiment with and operate unmanned systems in a permissive environment, develop Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) against near-peer competitors, and refine manned and unmanned Command and Control (C2) infrastructure, all designed to move the Navy to the hybrid fleet. (U.S. Navy photo by Danette Baso Silvers/Released) - modified

Low-cost, high-impact technologies are redefining sea control, power projection, and naval dominance in a contested maritime domain.

US-Ukraine Critical Minerals Deal Reshapes Strategic Ties

President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Oval Office, Feb. 28, 2025, modified, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:President_Trump_and_Ukrainian_President_Zelenskyy_in_Oval_Office,_Feb._28,_2025_%28BQ%29.jpg

Assessing the economic and geopolitical impacts of the latest US-Ukraine critical minerals deal.

Will India Strike Back? Strategic Fallout of the Kashmir Attack

US DOD, modified, Soldiers of the Afghan National Army's 2nd Kandak (Battalion), 3rd Brigade, stand in formation. After ascending Chaperi Mountain, they discovered no survivors of the Kam Air flight that crashed Feb. 4. The team shifted its operation to a victim recovery operation. The ANA will support the International Security Assistance Force in the recovery efforts when weather will permit helicopter flight to the area. Photo by Sgt. 1st Class Mack Davis, USA

Assessing limited strikes, geographic constraints, and the nuclear ceiling amid rising tensions following the Kashmir attack of April 22.

Lower Mekong at Risk: Water Scarcity & Rising Geopolitical Tensions

MekongDelta

Exploring how upstream dam building, food insecurity, and climate-driven drought are pushing the Mekong River Basin toward greater geopolitical instability.

Can Europe Compete in Africa’s New Great Game?

Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. / cc EU2017EE Eston, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/eu2017ee/23675993798

As China and Russia gain ground, the EU is recalibrating its Africa policy—blending values with economic, migration, and security priorities in a competitive global landscape.

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