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North America
US-Venezuela Relations Bottom Out Following Boat Strike
What Happened
Key events over the past few weeks:
- The Trump administration deploys some 4,000 soldiers, seven warships, and a nuclear submarine to the southern Caribbean over the summer.
- The US military fires on a vessel leaving Venezuela on September 2, killing all 11 people on board. The vessel is alleged to have been trafficking narcotics to the United States.
- An additional 10 F-35s are deployed to the region on September 6. Five F-35s were seen landing in Puerto Rico over the weekend.
- President Nicolas Maduro announces that militia and military units will be deployed to ‘battlefront’ locations across Venezuela on September 11.
- Details of the US government narrative are challenged, first by media reports claiming the boat had already turned back when it was attacked, and later by assertions from the Venezuelan government that there were no gang members on board.
Why It Matters
Two ways to interpret these events:
- Drug War Reality TV. The optics of cracking down on cross-border drug flows figure prominently in President Trump’s foreign policy in the Americas. There was fentanyl trafficking being used as a justification for trade restrictions on Canadian goods, and later the terrorist designation of Mexican drug cartels, followed by hints of US military strikes within Mexico. To actually follow through on strikes in Mexico would be a plan fraught with economic and diplomatic risk; this is perhaps why the onus has now shifted to Venezuela. Regardless of the rationale, the announcement of the operation on Truth Social came complete with declassified footage of the actual drone strike – visual evidence of the Trump administration’s hard stance on drugs. Under this interpretation, future strikes are likely to be piecemeal and regime change is not the objective (Trump himself has downplayed the possibility). It’s all just a matter of posturing for US domestic audiences.
- Regime Change Redux. There are, however, indications that regime change could still be on the menu. For one, regime change has been a longstanding ambition of US policy toward Venezuela, championed by figures who now hold key positions in the Trump administration, notably Marco Rubio. Two, there’s no love lost between Maduro and Trump, as the US president recently upped the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million leading up to the boat strikes. Moreover, in his first term, President Trump displayed a conspicuous willingness to get involved in Venezuelan politics, notably recognizing Juan Guaido as the legitimate leader of the country in 2019.
