Iran plays a central role in today’s global chessboard. With its strategic location at the heart of the Middle East and vast oil and gas reserves, it has long been a key regional power and a major player on the global stage. The direct military confrontation with Israel that began on June 13 has brought renewed attention to the question of regime change in Tehran. As the Islamic Republic faces mounting pressure and Western leaders openly invoke the possibility of regime change, the question arises: What makes Iran so important to global geopolitics? And how would a regime change impact great power rivalries involving Russia, China, and the West?
The Crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East
Iran’s geography makes it a pivotal link between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. It sits at the crossroads of major trade corridors, a fact that both Tehran and great powers have leveraged in their strategies.
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is one of the most strategically significant infrastructure projects involving Iran. The INSTC is a multi-modal trade route, combining rail, road, and maritime transport, that stretches over 7,200 kilometres from India through Iran to Russia and Europe. Iran’s role in the project is central. Geographically, Tehran is the linchpin of the corridor, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Caspian Sea, thus providing the most direct land bridge between South Asia and the Eurasian mainland.
Goods traveling from Mumbai to Moscow, for example, can reach their destination up to 40% faster and at 30% lower cost compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal. For Iran, the INSTC is both an economic opportunity and a geopolitical lever. The corridor allows Tehran to monetize its geographical position, collecting transit fees and strengthening its relevance as a logistical hub. As forecasted by the Eurasian Development Bank, the INSTC will account for 30 million tons of goods annually by 2030, generating $1.5 billion in transit revenue for Iran. Moreover, the corridor represents a valuable alternative for countries seeking to reduce dependency on West-controlled routes. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Moscow has prioritized developing the corridor as a way to route trade away from Europe and toward India, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf. The corridor allows Russia to circumvent European markets and financial systems. As recently reported, Iran’s minister of roads and urban development confirmed that Tehran and Moscow are now targeting the transit of up to 10 million tons of goods annually via the INSTC.
A Dormant Energy Superpower
Energy is another area where Iran’s strategic weight is enormous. Iran possesses the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest oil reserves, sitting on roughly 34 trillion cubic meters of gas and over 200 billion barrels of oil. This amounts to nearly 12% of global crude oil and an equally staggering share of gas. Under sanctions, Tehran’s potential has been only partially realized. Oil exports have hovered around 1.5 million barrels per day in recent years, far below full capacity.
The size of Iran’s reserves makes policy shifts in Tehran highly consequential for global energy markets, as Iran remains a major source of oil and gas exports to energy-hungry markets in Asia and Europe.
