Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:

Key Dates

July 19 – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes.

July 19 – Japan Core CPI.

July 19 – China loan prime rate decision. A rate cut wasn’t even on the radar until the PBOC’s surprise reduction of its RRR last week, and it remains unlikely for this week’s meeting.

July 20 – US building permits.

July 20 – Japan YoY imports, exports, and trade balance for June.

July 20 – Bank of Japan meeting minutes.

July 20 – Germany Producer Price Index for June.

July 21 – South Africa CPI for June. This one will be watched more closely in the context of ongoing unrest in the country. May year-on-year numbers came in at a 30-month high and new lockdowns remain a distinct possibility amid the Delta-fueled third wave.

July 21 – US crude oil inventories.

July 21 – Canada New Housing Price Index for June.

July 22 – ECB interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and press conference. Don’t expect any rate change or asset purchasing adjustments to result from this meeting; however, we may get some new clues as to when the normalization will come. For the time being, relatively tame June inflation numbers and resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks are making the case for continued stimulus.

July 22 – US initial jobless claims.

July 22 – US existing home sales for June.

July 23 – UK retail sales data for June. The UK retail recovery hit a speedbump in May, possibly due to bad weather, mixed public health messaging, and/or public skittishness from the widening Delta outbreak (Delta cases are up 17% over the past week). The June numbers will help clear up this uncertainty, and provide some context on how Delta might impact the US economic recovery.

July 23 – Germany manufacturing PMI.

July 23 – UK manufacturing and services PMI.