Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:

Key Dates

June 14 – Japan industrial production for April.

June 14 – India wholesale price index (WPI) for May.

June 14 – Euro zone industrial production for April.

June 14 – NATO leaders’ summit in Brussels.

June 14 – Public statement from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

June 14 – Australia central bank meeting minutes released.

June 15 – Earnings and unemployment for April.

June 15 – France harmonized index of consumer prices for May.

June 15 – United States core retail sales for May.

June 15 – United States industrial production for May.

June 16 – UK consumer price index for May.

June 16 – China industrial production for May. After a string of strong results to start 2021, policymakers will be hoping that industrial production continues to do the heavy lifting in China’s post-COVID recovery, especially amid relatively lackluster domestic demand. Two headwinds suggest the possibility of a market miss, however: COVID-19 lockdowns in the ‘world’s factory’ of Guangdong Province and rising input prices across-the-board.

June 16 – United States building permits and housing starts for May.

June 16 – Canada core consumer price index for May.

June 16 – United States crude oil inventories.

June 16 – Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, economic projections, and interest rate decision. Interest rate movement is next to nil. However, it is possible (though still unlikely) that the central bank will drop a hint as to a possible reappraisal of the present normalization schedule, with focus falling on the dot plot of quarterly rate forecasts. Markets will also be monitoring any indication of a drawdown of asset purchases by the Fed.

June 16 – Australia employment for May.

June 17 – Switzerland interest rate decision.