A precipitous drop in Japan’s population has long been predicted.

Now it’s actually happening.

In 2018, the country suffered its largest population decline on record: 448,000. The year saw 921,000 births, the lowest amount since records started back in 1899, and over 25,000 fewer than the year before. The 1.369 million recorded deaths were the highest ever recorded.

More declines are expected in the years to come. An oft-cited 2017 estimate from the National Institute of Population and Social Security projects that the Japanese population will fall to 88.08 million in 2065, representing a decline of 30% from 2015 levels.

Impact

What’s to blame for the rapidly population? Well it’s not entirely a matter of couples not having enough babies, despite what Finance Minister Taro Aso would have you believe. Japan’s 2016 birthrate stands at 1.44 according to World Bank data. That’s actually a substantial increase from Japan’s 2005 low of 1.26, and still well above South Korea’s rate of 1.17 and, by way of a European example, Portugal’s rate of 1.31.

The uptick in Japan’s birthrate over the past decade shows that, to a certain extent, government policies to boost fertility have borne fruit. These policies include widening access to childcare services, reducing the burden of education costs, encouraging paternity leave, and boosting childcare payments.