Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are poised to meet in a historical summit in Singapore on Tuesday. The event will begin with a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders and then proceed to a working lunch with key officials and experts on both sides. The summit will conclude in the evening and President Trump is expected to leave by 8 p.m.

For all the media hype of a seminal historical moment, the summit will be very brief. But it’s this brevity that will increase its chances of success, at least from a public relations point of view. If the devil’s in the details of denuclearization, then it’s unlikely that he’ll be making the trip to Singapore.

Here are some of the key considerations surrounding the Trump-Kim summit:

Background

• A must-win for both leaders. As has been stressed in previous situation reports, this summit is politically important for both leaders. A high-level meeting with the U.S. has been sought by the Kim dynasty for decades due to the legitimacy it would bestow upon the regime (any doubters need only compare international perception of the Kim regime six months ago to now, a span in which it transformed from international pariah to power-player). President Trump on the other hand seems to have earmarked North Korean denuclearization as a legacy issue; his eagerness to get to the summit was evident in his decision to ditch the G-7 summit and fly to Singapore early. He believes that his unconventional negotiating style will allow for a breakthrough. He could well be right, but it won’t be the summit that tells the entire story – that will come months, years, perhaps even decades later.
• Tempering expectations on a short summit. There has been very little high-level behind-the-scenes negotiating between the United States and North Korea. What little we’ve seen began after President Trump cancelled the summit two weeks ago. It’s safe to say that the technical details of a denuclearization agreement have yet to be completely agreed upon let alone codified in detail. This won’t change after a one-day summit. So what will “success” look like on Tuesday? Accomplishing two things: 1) avoiding an open breach in the personal relationship between the two leaders; and 2) establishing a framework for ongoing in-depth talks that will delve into the nitty gritty of denuclearization. Remember that the Iran nuclear deal – an agreement that President Trump maintains wasn’t thorough enough – took two years of near constant negotiation to reach.