The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

No Surprises Here: Macron and Le Pen Proceed to Second Round in French Presidential Elections

The first round results for France’s presidential election are in, with centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron coming out on top (23.75%) and right-wing Marine Le Pen taking second place (21.53%). Pollsters had been predicting a close race, and they were right in the end. The scandal-ridden Francois Fillon took 19.91% and far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon received 19.64%, both narrowly missing the top-two cutoff for the second round.

The result is being presented as a major defeat for France’s establishment parties, and while there is some truth to this interpretation, most of the political damage here was self-inflicted. Current president Francois Hollande is so deeply unpopular that he tried to preempt humiliation by not standing for a second term. His move did not spare the Socialists a drubbing at the polls though, as Benoit Hamon took just 6% of the vote, with most of his support shifting to the firebrand Melenchon. Francois Fillon, the standard bearer of the establishment center-right, was doomed by a series of scandals involving the misuse of public funds to pay family and friends for jobs they did not do – a particularly grievous crime given the anti-elite mood sweeping through French politics. Just the fact that he garnered almost enough to enter the second round is a surprise given that most were expecting him to bow out of the race when the scandal first broke.

So the old parties are on the outside looking in for the second round. But in terms of policy, they will be well-represented by Emmanuel Macron, the young socialist-turned-centrist who tows a very conventional line on issues such as free trade, defense, and the European Union.

Yet Macron’s mainstream media coronation as ‘the next president of France’ could still be premature, especially in the age of Brexit and Donald Trump. Although the old conventions are holding in the immediate aftermath of the result, with Francois Fillon begrudgingly declaring that he will vote for Macron in the second round, Melenchon’s healthy take of around 19% suggests that there is a much larger reservoir of anti-establishment sentiment than in previous elections (Melenchon, like Le Pen, would seek to pull France out of the European Union and relaunch the French franc). These voters won’t necessarily behave like past precedent, and although a Le Pen presidency still appears unlikely – particularly with her paltry 21.53% take in the first round – the final result could end up being a lot closer than pollsters are currently projecting. For his part, Melenchon has yet to express an opinion on who his supporters should vote for.

The second round of voting will feature Macron and Le Pen, and it will take place on May 7.

A Make-or-Break Week in the Swamp

Vice President Mike Pence cut his Pacific trip short in order to return to Washington yesterday. The reason he gave is the huge week ahead in Washington, with health care and the controversial border wall on the legislative docket, and all against the backdrop of a possible government shutdown. Pence’s decision to cut his visit short in this strategic and volatile region is a perfect allegory of the Trump presidency thus far: inwardly focused, not by design but by necessity given the partisan dysfunction that prevails in Washington.