Us-China Trade War News & Analysis
Geopolitical Dimensions of Forced Labor Governance
Global labor governance is fracturing, leaving manufacturers caught between competing legal systems that, in effect, force them to choose between maintaining access to the Chinese input networks or Western markets.
Critical Minerals: Global Indium Supply & Demand
Indium is the one critical mineral that remains restricted in the wake of the November 2025 US-China trade deal, throttling global supply of a key input in data centers. This article explores indium’s geopolitical importance and Washington’s slow but steady progress toward supply diversification.
US Export Controls and China’s ‘Good Enough’ AI Stack
It’s true that export controls have curbed the development of China’s domestic AI stack. But they have conversely also made it a rational inevitability, which is already evident in China’s ‘good enough’ AI stack.
Geopolitics Weekly (China Framework, Carney-Xi Meeting, BOJ Decision)
This week we cover a new trade framework between China and the United States, a key meeting at the sidelines of APEC between Canada’s prime minister and Xi Jinping, a highly anticipated rate decision from the Bank of Japan, and early indications that Trump’s new round of Russia sanctions are having their intended effect.
US–China Trade Truce Redux: Risks Behind the Busan Deal
The Busan framework illustrates a new phase in US–China relations: one defined not by resolution or reconciliation, but by management of rivalry.
Better Late Than Never: Washington Enters the Rare Earths Race
A deal between the US DoD and MP Materials to restart rare earth production at Mountain Pass in California is a page out of China’s industrial policy rulebook. But it will be years before US domestic rare earth production can catch up.
Xi Struggles to Protect Chinese Economy as Trump Tariffs Loom
Beijing has been preparing the Chinese economy for another round of trade-related US-China tensions, but it might not be enough.
US-China Trade War 2.0: Unpacking Trump’s New China Tariffs
Examining the scope of President Trump’s new China tariffs, their likely consequences, and how they match up to previous rounds of the US-China trade war.
Trump Cabinet Signals Escalating US-China Tensions
Donald Trump’s early cabinet picks are a who’s who of China hawks and critics, indicating mounting US-China tensions over the next four years.
Simandou: China’s Pilbara Killer Comes of Age
An in-depth examination of the historical intrigues and geopolitical dynamics surrounding Guinea’s Simandou iron mine – one of the world’s last untapped major reserves of high-grade iron ore, and the central pillar of Beijing’s push to diversify iron supply lines away from the West.
Without Allies, the U.S. Falls Behind China
The realities of global trade and domestic deindustrialization cannot be glossed over with non-binding initiatives like the IPEF; either the United States adapts and brings allies on board, or it falls behind.
CHIPS Act Wins the Battle, But Not the Semiconductor War
The CHIPS Act buys time for the US semiconductor industry. But if Washington and other Western allies desire a lasting victory, they will have to beat Beijing at its own game.
China’s Export Ban on Semiconductor Inputs
China's restrictions on gallium and germanium exports threaten to impact the wider global semiconductor industry.
US-China Decoupling: A Double-Edged Sword for South Korea
The South Korean chip industry is caught in the middle of an intensifying US-China trade war.
How Narco-Geopolitics Hinder US-China Antidrug Cooperation
US-China cooperation on fentanyl precursor chemicals has proven effective in the past; however, it has become a geopolitical casualty as relations sour between Washington and Beijing.
Ending America’s Trade War with China Won’t Stop Inflation
Tariffs are questionable economic policy, but their role in inflation is minimal.
SNAPSHOT: Wither the US-China Trade War?
Recent US-China trade data reminds that breaking up is hard to do.
The End of Made in China?
Decoupling is the natural result of China’s worsening business climate for foreign companies.
History Returns: US-China Relations Taking Shape under Biden
The Biden administration’s China policy is crystalizing, and the earliest indications aren’t terribly encouraging for Beijing.
Outlook 2021: US-China Relations
2021 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for the future of US-China relations.
