Iran’s national security is no longer defined solely by armies, weapons, or borders—it now hinges on something far more fundamental: water.

Iran’s diverse ethnic groups have formed a central pillar of recent and previous protest movements. But the prospect of bringing back the monarchy is a non-starter for many of them.

A potential cut-off from Venezuelan and/or Iranian oil supply is a marginal-cost issue, not a systemic vulnerability for China’s overall energy security.

The prospect of a US military strike against Iran over its violent crackdown on protests has laid bare a shift in Middle East geopolitics—one marked by the unexpected upending of long-standing rivalries between Iran and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Recent US military movements reflect a recognition that the Middle East is entering a phase of heightened unpredictability, where deterrence is bolstered by increased readiness. But the pivot is not without its risks.

The risk of a new round of Israeli strikes against Iran is shaped less by a discrete ‘decision’ than by an unstable equilibrium left unresolved by diplomacy, deterrence signaling, and regional de-escalation.

This week we examine worsening protests across Iran, a state of geopolitical limbo descending over Venezuela, and a tentative step into hard power projection from the BRICS Plus bloc.

This week we examine fallout from the US military’s capture of President Maduro in Venezuela, cascading Saudi-UAE tensions over Yemen, and a new protest movement sweeping Iran.

The Islamic Republic has proved, over four and a half decades, that it can survive war, sanctions, isolation, and cycles of protest. The next test is subtler: whether it can survive its own habits.

Long-term domestic mismanagement, regional dam-building, and climate change are fueling a water crisis that could test the Iranian regime to its limits.

With the rise of Masoud Pezeshkian, Washington gets one more chance at a nuclear deal and reconciliation. Failure all but ensures a nuclear Iran and a slew of geopolitical setbacks for the West.

The deaths of Iran’s president and foreign minister may spur some internal debates, but don’t expect domestic and foreign policy to undergo any radical changes.

Domestic issues are likely behind a recent strike on Pakistan, but the swift and in-kind reaction undoubtedly caught Tehran by surprise.

The Qatari monarchy is all too aware that Tehran’s upheaval today could be Doha’s uprising tomorrow, and responds to the Masha Amini protests accordingly.

The political cost of decades of placating regime hardliners is now evident in the unrest sweeping Iran’s cities.

The next succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader represents a golden opportunity for Persia to rise once more in the Middle East.

Will the wave of protests centered on the death of Masha Amini have a different outcome than previous nation-wide outbreaks of unrest?

Now over 42 years on, the disaster of the so-called Islamic revolution is still playing out for the long-suffering people of Iran.

New nationwide protests are heaping pressure on the Rouhani regime; but all routes to a political solution remain blocked off.

Tehran tries to put one fire out while preparing for an inferno.