International Trade News & Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz and the Power of Chokepoints

cc European Space Agency, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Middle_Eastern_terrain.jpg

The security of a few narrow waterways underpins much of the global economy, and one of them has effectively been closed.

Israel-Iran War Casts Shadow over IMEC Corridor Ambitions

IMEC connections; permission details - https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright / cc ecfr.eu - https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-infinite-connection-how-to-make-the-india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor-happen/#the-road-ahead / cc BY-SA 4 - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

One of the geopolitical casualties of the Israel-Iran war could be IMEC: a transport corridor linking India to Europe via the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.

Dedollarization and the Wane of Western Sanctions

cc Eli Christman, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/gammaman/6242455757/in/photolist-avCdBx-2hjuJz4-2i126K3-2hYCbCm-JsEXer-6HPouy-buhotj-2gUhgNH-M4fzZf-2eaQUFf-2jFhzCL-2i6vvPJ-s684tk-2gTDx9A-tiXJrU-DYiqkV-HyZshN-M4fzLQ-J3tY7t-29U79uz-LPqHiX-bHbSYc-2iceomd-2b95Cx9-BuCYBg-buid67-gmMFuK-owr93E-bHd2uK-2m4ZruN-28UaAGN-bGpQcX-2hxJ5Yo-242HwkK-2hCqSPn-buh4Q5-5MW23a-2i7kMTA-2i8yVdk-2iak8pu-2i3kpKd-zwKcc-2i8ggPA-bHd314-2i8QHAo-nfckUq-2i7gMr6-2kbCXwS-SSLhvc-2n37D17

Non-dollar alternatives for settling global trade continue to expand in the wake of the Ukraine war.

The Time is Ripe for a Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement

cc Andrew Bowden, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/bods/5989954453/in/photolist-a8j5LM-2gUiawX-2haMFur-2hGRkqA-2gaN4qq-SZ1JT1-2hD6juY-2hGokES-2gVhEXN-2gaNtqQ-2gUirnE-2hqfRnp-2haMApM-2g5ya9R-2haMAkF-2gaMwkV-2gWgQxW-2hGDfKh-2hFdvj2-2hGn39m-24qHQwD-2haQaMz-2gaNDEb-2hDctte-2hFnuSh-2hqdMu5-2gaNhSi-2g5DKwy-2hqchm2-2cRhAAQ-2h5oRbS-2gaNooQ-2gaN4jh-2e31tXs-2hDgcCX-2hFnDn3-2ghxo1s-RH5CUJ-2hrHEYA-2haRtoR-2haRirw-2hGy2zf-2hFoA2d-2aLCWd7-2hujwGZ-2hrMBEh-tgFz2Q-2gaNvgx-2gaNbQ5-2gaNfCz

A Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA) would represent the capstone in Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

A Geopolitical Reshuffle in the South Caucasus

At Vladimir Putin’s initiative, the Kremlin hosted trilateral talks between the President of the Russian Federation, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. (January 2021)cc kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64877

Fallout from the Second Karabakh War is overhauling old geopolitical certainties in the region.

Global Shipping Still a Mess ahead of 2021 Holiday Season

cc Bernard Spragg. NZ, modifed, https://flickr.com/photos/volvob12b/16998193220/in/photolist-rU5bCU-r4Q6XV-qignqm-kq2MTR-298FFUq-qmuDY4-9pD94m-xMQLeR-Rhskt6-P75Jfr-wwvCPe-57Xaxz-NVPXFw-x3KQhm-9pA8Hg-owpee1-E6PsRg-cFfQ9Y-4VmTae-owpev3-9pDb7U-owpeiu-4Vr5jj-qsQvDo-cJSWiG-kR9GMd-ec68BD-uzDKoq-oHHKrj-bYLbvy-dfinyE-GyiGEW-nKtP4W-jhN7yp-gMhvwP-9pDbxJ-9tKTPT-c4P1aA-4Vr5kW-Y5TeQV-aRgbwB-Ch4Muh-wZBG9F-wXi6AG-9tNQqf-w3AqAs-w3K1BX-xUauoC-ocJ51w-xCqdHb

Global maritime shipping logjams set to generate inflationary pressure into 2022.

Outlook 2021: Asia’s Path to COVID-19 Recovery Runs through Regional Trade Deals

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Asia-Pacific nations hope the CPTPP and RCEP will drive growth in 2021 as economies recover from COVID-19.

Protectionism Won’t Solve Trump’s Trade Deficit

cc Flickr The White House, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

President Trump came to power on a platform of reducing the trade deficit, yet in 2020 the gap remains wide as ever. What went wrong?

Post-Pandemic Supply Chains: Production Alternatives to China

MaerskShip, cc Flickr Jnzl's Photos, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Three countries to watch in the likely event that the trade diversification trend accelerates following the COVID-19 pandemic.

AfCFTA: Potential Problems for a Single-Market Africa

KENYA, Mombasa: Photograph taken by the Kenyan Ministry of East African Affairs, Commerce and Tourism (MEAACT) 31 July shows a general view of Mombasa Port on Kenya's Indian Ocean coast. MANDATORY CREDIT: MEAACT PHOTO / STUART PRICE., modified, Flickr, MEAACT Kenya, public domain

Signing the landmark agreement was a relatively simple exercise; the true test is yet to come.

EU Inks Free Trade Deal with Mercosur

Mercosul-04-jul-2005, cc Ricardo Stuckert/PR via www.agenciabrasil.gov.br, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mercosul-04-jul-2005.jpeg

Completed following decades of negotiation, the deal will create a market of over 770 million people. Was it worth the wait?

US-China Trade War: Making Up Is Hard to Do

XiTrumpFC, (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) , modified, public domain, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/more-photos-foreign-trip/

With a wide array of conflicting and congruous interests, the US-China relationship is anything but simple.

Sino-Indian Relations: The Weak Point of the BRICS

BRICSsummit, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55515/photos/50064,

Unity among the BRICS countries will continue to be thwarted by longstanding geopolitical disputes.

Emerging Powers See Opportunities under Trump Doctrine

White House, modified, public domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Trump%27s_Trip_to_Germany_and_the_G20_Summit_(35781982945).jpg

While the United States looks inward, former allies and economic partners are increasingly looking elsewhere.

Trump Puts 2018 US-China Trade War on Pause

U.S. Army Chief of Staff, Gen. Ray Odierno met with commanders of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Beijing, China, February 21, 2014. Gen. Odierno, spoke with different Chinese commanders to strengthen and promote military to military relations between the United States and China. (U.S. Army Photo by Sgt. Mikki L. Sprenkle/Released)

China may have won this battle, but the trade war will rage on.

2018 Brazil Election: A Watershed Moment for Latin America’s Right

LulaBW, cc Flickr Mídia NINJA, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

The 2018 Brazil general election is wide open, and its result could be make-or-break for the continent’s right-wing resurgence.

Global Forecast (04-17-2018)

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Ambivalence in the United States on new Russia sanctions, a Jupiter rises to defend democracy in Europe, and the IMF predicts solid global growth for 2018.

TPP Back on the Table for the United States

Leaders of the original TPP states in 2010, cc Flickr Gobierno de Chile, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

It was always going to be a matter of time, but few predicted the about face would come this quickly. The TPP is back on the menu for the United States.

Brunei Abandons South China Sea Claim for Chinese Finance

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The first domino of ASEAN claimant states has fallen as Brunei goes silent on the South China Sea dispute in exchange for closer economic cooperation with China.

Fact Sheet: The New Eurasian Land Bridge

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An overview of the New Eurasian Land Bridge, an economic conduit envisioned by China’s One Belt One Road Initiative.

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