Indo-Pacific Security News & Analysis

Sovereignty, Airpower, and the Limits of Alliance Integration

Generated by Google Gemini AI on June 30, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality. | Uses elements from the work of Hunini; October 2024, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GCAP_concept_model_%28delta_wing_type%29_left_rear_top_view_in_GCAP_booth_of_JA2024_at_Tokyo_Big_Sight_October_19,_2024_03.jpg

The question is not whether a sixth-generation fighter can be built. It’s whether these aircraft will be able to operate effectively in the environment they are being built for.

How Trump’s Marine Monument Announcement Counters China in the Pacific

A U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball (WMSL 756) law enforcement team pulls alongside the F/V Pacific Venture prior to conducting a living marine resource boarding in the Bering Sea, June 1, 2024. Kimball’s crew ensured fishing vessels in the Bering Sea were within compliance of all federal fishery conservation laws and safety requirements through the completion of twenty living marine resources boardings during their 122-day patrol of the region. U.S. Coast Guard photo by Ensign James Bongard. - https://www.news.uscg.mil/Doing-Business/Photos/igphoto/2003520062/

President Trump's maritime national monument order has been viewed as a deregulation story. But it's also a strategic one that places US civilian vessels in close proximity to China’s irregular maritime forces in the Pacific.

Able Archer 83 and the Dual-Contingency Trap: Lessons in Effective Deterrence

cc PH2 David B. Loveall, USN, modified, The U.S. Navy aircraft carriers USS Coral Sea (CV-43), left, and USS Midway (CV-41), center, and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN-65), right, underway during CINCPAC Exercise FLEETEX '83. The US Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard and the Canadian navy were participating in the exercise near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USS_Midway_%28CV-41%29_Coral_Sea_%28CV-43%29_and_Enterprise_%28CVN-65%29_off_Alaska_1983.JPEG

Able Archer 83 showed how a routine Cold War military exercise could escalate toward nuclear confrontation. The US, Japan, and South Korea can learn from it when preparing for a dual contingency in the Indo-Pacific.

Capability Gaps and Uneven Implementation: Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

PORT ANGELES, Wash. -- The Canadian Coast Guard hovercraft Siyay demonstrates its capabilities off the coast of Washington Aug. 23, 2009 as part of the North Pacific Coast Guard Forum. Canada, Japan, Russia, and the United States sent ships to take part in the Forum, while two members of the forum, China and South Korea, participated as observers. The partner nations conducted simulated search and rescue, aids to navigation, law enforcement and security operations during the three-day event. U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Cory J. Mendenhall. VIRIN = 090823-G-#####-001 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canadian_Coast_Guard_hovercraft_Siyay_-_090823-G-------001.jpg

Canada is present in the Indo-Pacific, but its engagement lacks the policy and material discipline required to shape outcomes. The costs of this approach will only increase as China consolidates its influence in the region.

South Korean Sub Docks in Canada as Decision Looms on RCN Procurement

ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ROKS_Dosan_Ahn_Changho_class_submarine.png

A port visit at CFB Esquimalt by a Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine is meant to demonstrate strategic and industrial benefits of the Hanhwa Ocean bid ahead of Ottawa’s final decision on who will supply the next generation of RCN submarines.

China’s PL-17 Missile Ripples through Indo-Pacific Defense

cc PLAAF J-10B with PL-12 and PL-8B at ZhuHai Air Show 2018, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PLAAF_J-10B_with_PL-12_and_PL-8B_at_ZhuHai_Air_Show_2018.jpg

With a reported range of 400 km, China’s PL-17 air-to-air missile puts enemy AWACS and ISR platforms in play, potentially upending longstanding military certainties across the Indo-Pacific.

Europe’s EPAA: A Blueprint for Northeast Asia Missile Defense

NAVAL SUPPORT FACILITY DEVESELU, Romania (Sept. 1, 2019)– The sun sets over the U.S. Navy base in Romania, home to NATO's Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System (AABMDS) site, after completing a long-planned systems update Aug. 9, 2019. During the maintenance period, the U.S. fulfilled its commitment to NATO's Ballistic Missile Defense(BMD) by the temporary deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to the Naval Support Facility in Deveselu, Romania. The deployment of the U.S. Army’s THAAD battery to Romania lasted about six weeks while Aegis Ashore software and other equipment was updated. In April, the task force deployed to NSFD where they integrated into the existing NATO BMD architecture during a period of routine maintenance and upgrade of the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System located there.“The successful deployment of THAAD to Romania demonstrates our commitment to support our Allies and the NATO Ballistic Missile Defense mission,” said U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Gregory Brady, commander of 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command. “Missile defense is a vital element to the collective defense of Europe and is one of the U.S. military’s top priorities. This deployment shows that we stand ready to surge combat credible air and missile defense forces when needed.”The THAAD system re-deployed back to the U.S. and NATO's Aegis Ashore has resumed full functionality and remains focused on potential threats from outside the Euro-Atlantic area. (Photo by U.S. Navy Lt. Amy Forsythe, Public Affairs Officer, Naval Support Facility Deveselu)

In an era of precision saturation attacks and resource restraint, missile defense will be defined less by the number of interceptors than by the coherence of the regional architecture behind them.

China’s PLA Navy: A Peer Competitor Emerges

PLA Navy US Navy, Generated by ChatGPT on February 10, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Examining the force structure, doctrine, and capabilities of China’s PLA Navy after decades of modernization and rapid shipbuilding.

Manila Turns to Minilateralism to Shore Up Security

Philippine president Bongbong Marcos and Singaporean prime minister Lawrence Wong in Manila, 4 June 2025. , modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bongbong_Marcos_and_Lawrence_Wong_in_Manila_%282025%29_05.jpg

The ‘ASEAN Way’ has failed to protect Philippines sovereignty in the South China Sea, so Manila is taking matters into its own hands and pursuing minilateral agreements with likeminded powers.

New Tokyo-Manila Maritime Pact Signals Shift in Indo-Pacific Security

Ships of the 7th Escort Division anchored at the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Ominato Base, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:7th_Escort_Division_at_Maritime_Self-Defense_Force_Ominato_Base.jpg

The recent Japan–Philippines pact is not simply about defense. It is about determining whether the most stabilizing elements of the old order can be salvaged via minilateralism and conventional deterrence. Failure means fragmentation, and ‘might’ eclipsing ‘right’ in the Indo-Pacific.

Prabowo and Albanese: Turning Ceremony into Accountable Security Partnership

cc Ministry of State Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Prabowo_Subianto_Announces_Red_and_White_Cabinet_for_2024-2029_Period.jpg

The recent Prabowo-Albanese summit provides an opportunity to reshape regional stability — so long as the resulting legal framework is grounded in oversight, the agenda is broadly developmental, and transparency guides the partnership.

Shaping Undersea Geopolitics: The Rise of Fifth-Generation Submarines

Generated by ChatGPT on November 18, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

In an era of intensifying geopolitical competition, rising crises, and heightened maritime tension, the A26 and similar submarines illustrate that undersea warfare is no longer the exclusive domain of nuclear powers.

Jakarta’s Courtesy Calls to Pyongyang: A Risk Worth Taking?

Indonesia / DPRK flag, Generated by Google Gemini AI on November 6, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Indonesia’s outreach to North Korea represents a classic middle-power play: carve out a niche as an honest broker, even if the broker occasionally makes uncomfortable allies.

Takaichi’s Foreign Policy Comes into Focus in Japan

cc Cabinet Secretariat, modified, 令和7年10月21日、高市総理は、総理大臣官邸で高市内閣発足に当たっての記者会見を行いました。 / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sanae_Takaichi_20251021_press_conference_%281%29.jpg

A speech from new Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi helps fill in the blanks on what the next era of Japanese foreign policy will look like in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Taiwan Searches for Economic Allies in a Divided World

cc Presidential Office Building, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:William_Lai_Ching-te_20170905.jpg

Taiwan’s drive to diversify international partners reflects the tightrope that middle powers must navigate amidst growing great power competition. In this, the Canada-Taiwan economic cooperation framework can serve as an instructive case for Taipei.

From Guam to Camp David: Nixon-Era Lessons for the US-Japan-ROK Trilateral

Flags representing the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea are displayed during a trilateral meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Tarō Kōno and Republic of Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on July 7, 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. (State Department photo/ Public Domain), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Secretary_Pompeo_Participates_in_Trilateral_Meeting_in_Tokyo_%2828400351467%29.jpg

The Nixon era not only offers ambiguous lessons, but practical guideposts for strengthening trilateral US-Japan-ROK security cooperation, made all the more relevant by growing concerns of a ‘dual contingency’ in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

Indonesia-North Korea Thaw Opens Door to Closer Security Ties

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kim_Il-sung_and_Sukarno,_1965.jpg, modified, Kim Il-sung and Sukarno, 1965

Indonesia and North Korea are rebuilding a modest rapport. Whether the two nations’ engagement expands to become a significant factor in regional security depends on Indonesia; but it wouldn’t be the first time that Jakarta surprised on the foreign policy front.

Taiwan in India’s Strategic Perspective

As The Sunrise Command welcomes India's Indigenous Aircraft Carrier IN R11 Vikrant, May she always live by her motto

In addition to a burgeoning bilateral technology partnership, Taiwan affords New Delhi strategic space in the Indo-Pacific region and keeps critical SLOCs out of China’s direct control.

Geopolitics Weekly (EU Drone Wall, Argentine Midterms)

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This week we cover new EU initiatives meant to shore up defenses along the bloc’s eastern flank, President Trump’s foray into the heart of Argentine politics, and a new political coalition that could shake up foreign policy in Japan.

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran Water Crisis, New Japan PM, US Missile Stockpiles)

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This week we cover a shocking plan to move Iran’s capital due to water scarcity, a new right-wing prime minister taking over in Japan, further warming in US-Pakistan relations, and new efforts by the Pentagon to shore up US missile stockpiles.

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