Rarely is there a political event that catches emerging market investors by such surprise as that which just transpired in Argentina.
The shock came in the form of primary elections over the weekend – polls that are meant to gauge a candidate’s support ahead of general elections scheduled in October. The primaries are treated as a bellwether for the political winds of the moment. Incumbent President Mauricio Macri was expected to put up a competitive fight against his left-wing opponent, Alberto Fernández. Instead he took just 32% of the vote to Fernández’s 47.4%.
And the markets went wild.