Satellite photographs picked up a curious development in Syria this week: the appearance of a new glut of temporary housing in an airfield near Latakia, the coastal stronghold of Assad’s Alawite sect. Their appearance comes on the heels of reports Russia is sending an advanced military team of trainers and other support personnel, installing a temporary air traffic control station, and filing military overflight requests with surrounding countries. All are clear indications that the Russian government is increasing its support of the beleaguered Assad regime. How far this new pledge goes is still unknown – Damascus and Moscow have remained silent on that, preferring to emphasize the strength of their alliance rather than provide any details on the evolving situation.

This all begs the question: Why now? Recent events would seem to imply a scaling back of Russian support for its Syrian ally, as Moscow had been diplomatically engaging with the Gulf monarchies and reaching out to Syrian opposition groups. In truth Putin probably just made a decision to stick with Assad to the bitter end, that it’s better to be a loyal ally and ‘fail’ than it is to betray them and ‘succeed.’

These moves should be interpreted as Russian maneuvering for a Syrian endgame. The Syrian government’s war effort is sputtering out; it has long suffered from manpower shortages as the pool of fighting-age men in the Alawite heartland is tapped by four years of conflict. Some estimates put the army’s current strength at under 50% of its pre-war level, and most of these soldiers are young and inexperienced. In terms of territory, the government’s writ has shrunk by 83% since the war began, 18% of which was lost in 2015 alone.