The IMF released its’ bi-annual World Economic Outlook report this week, bearing the sobering caption: ‘Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers.’
Needless to say the outlook was anything but rosy, and with its release the Fund adds its own voice to the growing chorus of economic soothsayers predicting a downturn in the global economy.
The report warns of a broad slowdown that is now taking hold, with 2019’s global average expansion coming it at around 3% – the lowest rate since the global financial crisis. This is a far cry from the 3.8% recorded in 2017, when there was modest optimism that the global economy might be entering a new expansion cycle.
As the caption implies, the Fund ascribes much of the downturn to the recent proliferation of trade barriers, particularly with regards to the US-China trade war. According to the report, surging protectionism has shattered consumer confidence, disrupted global manufacturing supply chains, and frozen out global investment flows. As a result, central banks have had to turn to unprecedented and untested instruments in order to stimulate growth; and their toolbox of effective policy options is nearly exhausted.
Some other notables from the report:
