The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Turkey Enters the Mosul Fray

Turkey President Erdogan has been trying to get directly involved in the operation to liberate Mosul from Islamic State, moving Turkish troops into Iraq’s sovereign territory and risking a clash with the ongoing operation that includes Kurdish, Iraqi government, Sunni tribal, and Shiite militia fighters.

Erdogan has said that his forces are present at the request of the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, and they are available to assist in artillery and air support. However, the Iraqi joint command has thus far rejected all overtures toward their participation.

Iraq Prime Minister Iraq al-Abadi has previously warned that the presence of Turkish troops on Iraqi soil risks triggering a “regional war.”

This move on the part of Ankara is in keeping with a more assertive foreign policy following the failed coup in July. Since then Erdogan has moved to involve Turkish troops directly in not just Iraq, but Syria as well, where they’re assisting the Syrian Free Army and gobbling up territory that might otherwise have ended up in Kurdish hands. These moves are also being accompanied with some irredentist rhetoric, for example that Turkey has a “historical responsibility” in the area (Mosul was once an important urban hub in the Ottoman Empire).