The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

 

 

Iran’s Rouhani Sells the Nuclear Deal to the Electorate

With the nuclear deal fully implemented, the focus for President Rouhani now shifts from the international to the domestic, mainly how the deal will impact upcoming elections in Iran.

It’s no secret that the Rouhani administration was in a rush to secure sanction relief. The reform-minded executive branch needs to present the electorate with some tangible economic benefits resulting from its nuclear gambit in order to capture a greater chunk of the parliament on February 26 (the reformist bloc currently holds just a handful of seats). The rapid-fire succession of bilateral deals signed in the wake of sanctions being lifted should also be viewed in this context. They include Iran Air’s agreement to purchase 118 aircraft from Airbus (a deal worth $25 billion), $18 billion worth of new trade contracts with the Italian government, and separate deals with French companies Total, Peugeot-Citroen, and the state-owned SNCF railway.