The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Recent Attacks in Germany Could Bring Political Repercussions for Merkel

Germany has seen two high-profile terrorist attacks in recent days. The first one occurred last week, when a 17-year-old Afghan refugee attacked train passengers in Wuerzburg with an axe, injuring four people. The second and more recent attack occurred in Ansbach, where a 27-year-old Syrian asylum seeker blew himself up at a music festival, injuring 15 people.

Both of these attackers were relatively new arrivals to Germany, and both were found to have ideological links to Islamic State.

Elsewhere on July 24, another Syrian asylum seeker killed a Polish woman and injured two others in a machete attack in the German town of Reutlingen.

The logistical links to Islamic State are tenuous at best here, and likely wholly non-existent in the Reutlingen attack, which has been described as a crime of passion. But this doesn’t really matter. Politically, the damage has already been done, and the already divisive topic of Germany’s refugee policy is sure to loom large in upcoming regional elections. It could even be the wedge that finally dislodges Angela Merkel, or ‘Mutti’ from the apex of German politics.