Global Forecast (08-24-2016)


The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.



Duterte’s Drug War Could Drive a Wedge between the Philippines and the United States

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte – the “Trump of Southeast Asia” – has been busy putting his controversial platform into practice since taking office in June. Central to this platform has been a hard stand against drug crime, which has manifested in an apparent green light for police forces and vigilantes to engage in extra-judicial killings around the country. So far 1,900 such killings have taken place according to numbers provided by national head of police Ronald de la Rosa.

Duterte is following through on his election pledge to “kill them all.”

The president’s response to international criticism has been in keeping with his “Punisher” persona. In response to criticism over extra-judicial killings from UN human rights experts, Duterte threatened to pull the Philippines out of the United Nations. Later, also in true Trumpian fashion, Duterte reeled his rhetoric back in, admonishing interviewing reporters for “not being able to take a joke.” And so it appears the Philippines UN membership is safe for the time being.

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