Global Forecast (09-06-2016)

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The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

Philippines’ Duterte Launches Administration’s Foreign Policy by Calling US President Obama ‘Son of a Whore’

In a way, Duterte’s cussing out of the the US president, calling Obama a ‘son of a whore’ in response to a question about extrajudicial killings in his country, is not a surprising development given the arc of the ‘colorful’ politician’s rise to power. But in another way it actually is: usually the bombast is reserved for the election trail, for the consumption of domestic voters.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte took his show on the road to the ASEAN summit in Laos last week, and the diplomatic damage was immediate. Lacking any face-saving alternative, the Obama administration cancelled what was supposed to be the first face-to-face meeting between these two leaders of treaty-bound and nominally allied states.

Duterte has since apologized and said the comment was nothing personal. Instead, in his very own ‘Trump of the East’ style, he shifted the blame to the more nebulous US state department and its’ “mouthing” on human rights.

In a stark contrast to his approach to the US, Duterte struck a conciliatory chord toward China – a country that is aggressively pushing territorial claims against the Philippines in the South China Sea. On this issue, Duterte’s bluster was distilled into: “better to continually engage China in a diplomatic dialogue rather than anger officials there.” Quite the difference.

A distinctly pro-China vein has been apparent in Duterte from the very beginning of the campaign which saw a little-known mayor of Davao rise to the highest office in the land. This recent spat with President Obama, along with Duterte’s hesitance in holding Beijing to account on the Scarborough Shoal (which has recently seen an increase in Chinese boat activity, potentially a sign of increased reclamation activities in the near future) – both of these developments fit into the overall drift away from Washington. Expect Duterte to ride out China’s stonewalling of the ruling by the International Court of Arbitration and then to begin bilateral negotiations on the issue, negotiations where the Philippines will be at a massive disadvantage.

The one key factor to watch here is that a populist upsurge doesn’t force Duterte’s hand to get tough with Beijing. PLA Navy activities in the South China Sea are hugely unpopular there and any escalation from Beijing could trigger a popular reaction beyond Duterte’s control. Should this happen, Manila would need to pivot back to Washington to achieve some semblance of leverage against China. Luckily by then there will be a new president in office, one that (probably) hasn’t been called a ‘son of a whore’ by the sitting president of the Philippines.

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