Geopolitics Weekly contextualizes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week. This edition has been made available to all our readers.
North America
Liberation Day Redux Looms
What Happened
Faced with roiling global markets, President Trump paused his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs for 90 days to allow for bilateral negotiations with US trading partners. Since then, deals have been reached with a handful of states: China (a preliminary framework), the UK, Vietnam, and India (perhaps more of a roadmap). The expiration date for the original Liberation Day tariff reprieve now looms on July 9.
Why It Matters
It remains to be seen how President Trump approaches his own self-imposed deadline. Ignoring it, extending it, or using it as negotiating leverage against certain key trading partners are all possible. Over the weekend, the administration put out conflicting signals: first with Treasury Secretary Bessent pushing back the deadline to August 1, and then with President Trump indicating that ‘final offer’ letters were ready to go out this Monday.
- Trade Deals Aren’t Simple. The original goal of 90 deals in 90 days was never going to happen because trade deals are exceedingly complex; you can’t hammer one out in a day. This is attested to by the post-Liberation Day returns, where the biggest wins resemble vague memorandums of understanding or roadmaps toward a more comprehensive deal in the future. Major negotiations are ongoing as July 9 approaches, notably with Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea. These trading partners could well be recipients of letters that President Trump says will be sent out this week containing Washington’s final offer, after which severe punitive tariffs will be reinstated.
- Vietnam Deal the Goal? An article from last week examines the implications of the US-Vietnam trade deal – an agreement that stands out as being more comprehensive than other post-Liberation Day examples and highly favorable to Washington. It provides a window into what the Trump administration is aiming for elsewhere: tariff-free access for US goods, high tariffs on exports, and ample leeway for determining compliance. But this doesn’t mean that trading partners will play ball. Japan continues to drag its heels in talks, and Brussels has warned that even a barebones framework with a 10% tariff risks retaliation. The Vietnam model could prove too imbalanced for some partners to accept.
Europe
US Ukraine Military Aid Cut on Stockpile Concerns
What Happened
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has paused shipments of certain missiles and ammunition to Ukraine over concerns of depleted US stockpiles, pending an internal assessment. The affected weapons include Patriot interceptors, 155 mm high explosive Howitzer munitions, Hellfire and Stinger-missiles, and GMLRS rockets. Some high-profile figures challenged the move later in the week, notably Representative Adam Smith (D-Was), who claimed that US stockpiles are not any more depleted now than any time since the Ukraine war broke out.
Why It Matters
Amid mounting global geopolitical tensions, military industrial capacity is becoming a recurrent concern as de-industrialized nations churn through peacetime stockpiles. Within just the past few months we’ve seen stockpile concerns play into President Trump’s decision to halt the US military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, and Israel’s anti-missile systems come dangerously close to running dry amid constant Iranian ballistic missile and drone barrages. Moreover, Russia has gained an upper hand in Ukraine in part owing to a willingness to put its economy on a wartime footing to out-produce opponents in an industrial war of attrition (Russia currently produces NATO’s annual ammunition output in just three months). Much of the production shortfall in the West is down to the gradual offshoring of critical inputs in munitions production in the post-Cold War era. There seems to be the political will now in Europe and the United States to reverse the trend, but it will still take years to catch up.
Would-be Ukrainian Suicide Bomber Latest Case of Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe
What Happened
The Guardian has reported on a 19-year-old Ukrainian who was recruited online to suicide bomb a police station in Ukraine. The individual was paid just $1,000 and was made to believe he was carrying a paint bomb; he was thwarted by Ukraine’s SBU before the bomb could go off. The tactics mirror a string of draft office bombings earlier in the year.
Why It Matters
A source in the Guardian article says it all: Ukraine is a testing ground for novel Russian hybrid warfare tactics. A recent backgrounder published on the Geopolitical Monitor examines the evolution of these tactics, and how recruitment has shifted to purely online interactions in the absence of a ground-level intelligence presence. This new paradigm has been effective given the relatively low levels of human and financial capital being deployed by Russia, with no shortage of desperate or young people evidently willing to conduct arson or vandalism for relatively small sums. Yet there are operational risks involved, where would-be perpetrators – many of whom aren’t fully aware of what they’re doing – either make an amateur mistake or, as in the above case, discover the true nature of their mission and get cold feet. It’s clear that these operations are a work-in-progress, and one that, if successful, will be deployed elsewhere and by other states. Just as conventional military tactics are being remade in real time on the battlefields of Ukraine, so too is subversion in the digital era.
World
UN Report Flags Mounting Global Drought Risks
What Happened
A new report from the US National Drought Mitigation Center and UN Convention to Combat Desertification provides a detailed account of regional drought effects over 2023 and 2024, providing a more holistic and global perspective of a phenomenon typically examined on a case-by-case basis. The findings make for a sobering read, with water shortages, declining food production, and power bottlenecks already evident in several regions.
Why It Matters
Resource scarcity is a fundamental aspect of global geopolitics in that it serves as a frequent catalyst of sectarian and inter-state conflict. The overriding takeaway from the report is that resource scarcity and competition are already manifesting in the status quo, with climate stressors compounding the risks as the world continues to heat. A few of the challenges outlined in the report include:
- Water Shortages. Higher-than-normal temperatures and reduced precipitation strained water supplies around the globe from 2023-2025, with the report noting some degree of drinking water shortages in the southern Mediterranean, Mexico, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and the Amazon Basin. To take just one of many examples, Spain is facing a severe water scarcity outlook. Spain’s water crisis is well-established by now; however, the report notes that the country can expect a further 14-20% reduction in 2000-2022 precipitation averages by 2050 – enough to shift its entire climate classification from Mediterranean to warm steppe. Persistent drought conditions are also wreaking havoc on Spanish agriculture, which has seen gradually declining yields on iconic produce like olives and grapes. The climate crisis has already arrived so far as Spanish farmers are concerned, with the industry shedding some 51,000 jobs from 2023-2024. Mark Svoboda, one of the report’s co-authors, believes that drought-ridden Mediterranean economies like Spain are canaries in the coalmine, with all modern economies eventually set to grapple with the same issues.
- Land Shortages. Drought diminishes productive land stock as once fertile fields give way to desertification and fresh-water systems take on seawater. Türkiye, another highly water-stressed country, faces a negative outlook here. Some 88% of the country’s territory is already at risk of desertification and the report similarly flags the dual risks of rising temperatures and declining precipitation over the next century. Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta has wreaked havoc in Vietnam, which has seen tens of thousands of hectares of rice fields, fruit crops, and agriculture destroyed or damaged, along with shrimp farms, by saltwater intrusion and drought. The Vietnam damage is notable because this is a government that has been planning and implementing active mitigation strategies to protect its economic lifeline of the Delta.
- Energy Shortages. Drought-reduced river flows are impacting hydropower generation and throttling economic activity in vulnerable states. The report examines how the Zambezi River produced just 20% of its long-term average discharge in 2024. Zambia, which generates as much as 87% of its electricity from hydropower, was forced to make up the resulting shortfall with coal generation, though this still wasn’t enough to avoid rotating blackouts and declining economic output.
