Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Brussels Bows to US Pressure: Impact of the EU-US Tariff Deal

cc Open Democracy, Flickr, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/opendemocracy/1441901063

The 15% rate imposed by the recent EU-US trade deal will fundamentally restructure trade, energy, and defense flows across the Atlantic, advancing US economic and strategic priorities and putting the EU under substantial adjustment pressure going forward.

Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict: What’s Behind the Clashes

Royal Thai Army soldiers loading into their M1126 Stryker during Hanuman Guardian 2025 (HG25) at the Special Warfare School, Lop Buri, Thailand, March 14, 2025., modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Royal_Thai_Army_stryker_training_(8932790).jpg

Recent outbreaks of violence are the natural result of historical territorial disputes, military imbalances, nationalist sentiment, and China’s strategic backing of Cambodia, which together are making the Thailand-Cambodia border one of Southeast Asia’s most volatile geopolitical flashpoints.

Distributed Maritime Ops: Is the US Navy Ready for China?

Multinational ships sail in formation July 22, off the coast of Hawaii during Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2024. Twenty-nine nations, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and 25,000 personnel are participating in RIMPAC in and around the Hawaiian Islands, June 27 to Aug. 1. The world's largest international maritime exercise, RIMPAC provides a unique training opportunity while fostering and sustaining cooperative relationships among participants critical to ensuring the safety of sea lanes and security on the world's oceans. RIMPAC 2024 is the 29th exercise in the series that began in 1971. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Corban Lundborg), modified, https://www.navair.navy.mil/news/TTSD-Bolsters-Fleet-Readiness-and-Partnerships-RIMPAC-2024/Thu-08152024-1157

Distributed Maritime Ops seeks to increase the resilience of US forces against Chinese A2/AD threats by complicating enemy targeting and leveraging technological advantages, but success is still contingent on the robustness of US logistics and industrial support.

Türkiye Trade Strategy: Climbing the Value Chain in the Tariff Era

The Bosphorus, cc Senol Demir, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/senoldemir/2217955298

Türkiye’s strategic geography, expanding export focus, and manufacturing capabilities are positioning it as a key player in the reconfiguration of global trade, serving both as a bridge and a buffer amid the current era of tariffs, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions.

2025 BRICS Rio Summit: The Limits of Symbolism

Vladimir Putin took part, via videoconference, in the main plenary session of the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, under Brazilian Chairmanship. / cc modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77373

The 2025 BRICS Rio Summit reflects a contradiction at the heart of the bloc: while US trade threats underscore the relevance of BRICS efforts to hedge against dollar dominance, deep internal divisions and technical obstacles continue to hamstring its ability to actually do anything about it.

US-Vietnam Tariff Deal Shakes Up Asian Supply Chains

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a

The US-Vietnam tariff deal is highly significant: disrupting Chinese-linked export routes, chipping away at ASEAN unity, and possibly even forcing a fundamental rethink of global manufacturing strategies.

Trans-Afghan Railway: Central Asia’s Gateway to Global Trade

cc Julian-G. Albert, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Freight_train_in_northern_Afghanistan-2012.jpg

The Trans-Afghan Railway stands as a transformative project for Eurasian trade, representing a strategic corridor that bypasses traditional chokepoints and redefines connectivity from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean.

How Israel Could Strike Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility

Stylized image made to represent Fordow facility; created by ChatGPT on 6/20/2025.

The destruction of Iran’s buried uranium enrichment facility at Fordow is central to Israel’s war plans. But success won’t come easy, nor will it last very long.

A US-Iran War Would Destroy Trump’s America First Agenda

cc Whitehouse.gov, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-delivers-remarks-at-a-bill-signing-ceremony-supporting-the-auto-and-fuel-industries/

The Israeli-Iran conflict poses a serious risk of dragging the U.S. into another costly and open-ended war, undermining domestic priorities and exposing fundamental flaws in US strategy.

Israel’s Endgame in Iran: Collapse, Not Containment

cc IDF Spokesperson's Unit, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Idf_drone5.webp

The nuclear issue is a visible and urgent pretext, but the real structural goal is to weaken and ultimately dismantle the Iranian regime through a comprehensive strategy of attrition.

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