Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Taiwan in India’s Strategic Perspective

As The Sunrise Command welcomes India's Indigenous Aircraft Carrier IN R11 Vikrant, May she always live by her motto

In addition to a burgeoning bilateral technology partnership, Taiwan affords New Delhi strategic space in the Indo-Pacific region and keeps critical SLOCs out of China’s direct control.

Drone Warfare in Ukraine: The Fight for Air Littoral Control

A drone postage stamp in Ukraine, modified, cc Roysma, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stamp_of_Ukraine_s2081.jpg

The fight for control of the air littoral is a pivotal domain in the Ukraine war, one where success brings advantages in battlefield awareness, artillery suppression, maneuverability, and attrition. It represents an entirely new paradigm, and it is changing the face of modern warfare.

Nepal Between Giants: India–China Rivalry in the Himalayas

Generated by Google Gemini AI on October 1, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

For India, Nepal is a shield above its most vulnerable frontier; for China, it is a gateway into the subcontinent. Caught in between, Nepal’s fragility is never just its own; it is the fault line where two giants meet.

The Zangezur Corridor: A Key Trade Link in the South Caucasus

cc Clay Gilliland, modified, Line of trucks from Georgia and Armenia waiting to enter Russia Just south of Kazbegi; https://flickr.com/photos/26781577@N07/37109052573/in/photolist-YxcAtg-ezBaKz-oGJozX-oJt7qU-Zhzo9C-ZhznCs-2aTLqxG-CfJVAj-2aDbPpB-PRyLHG-gNSGzW-2aB2NVF-Zj3kMj-2bZC4UX-2bXuoHC-2nLvHZc-Zj3fxS-EnMPfs-DsohWo-DRC6vX-2kLVsmD-2kLRMmw-2iJ7FcS-2iJ7FgK-2iJ7Ffx-fhe3Cf-7orsHx-7ovmwS-PcL7bb-rm2mVZ-noiDg9-edhvaJ-2mcAJW2-2mcx3AR-edbRVF-ee7k1G-edbRQe-ecxge3-2gCFPBb-ee4wud-LVthDD-ecrCW2-KKgAvs-2gCFPGX-2gCFPEN-edbRCn-ecrD4X-dVgj8x-2mcWBES-afDKNz

The Zangezur Corridor is a transformative initiative that hopes to reshape trade and economic landscapes across Eurasia, but it’s not without it’s challenges.

Taiwan in US Strategic Perspective: Lynchpin of the Indo-Pacific

Taiwan abstraction, Generated by Google Gemini AI on September 17, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Taiwan has become a locus of geopolitics, global economic stability, and ideology in the post-Cold War era. This series explores why this small island looms so large in the strategic thinking of Pacific powers, starting with the United States.

China’s New Trade Empire Is Reshaping South America Geopolitics

Presidente da República, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, e presidente da República Popular da China, Xi Jinping em Cerimônia Oficial de Recepção - Pequim - China. / cc Palácio do Planalto , modified / https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/52819383580

China’s surge in infrastructure investment is transforming South America into an integrated part of its industrial supply chain and, over time, shifting the geopolitics of a continent long dominated by the United States.

Israel’s David’s Corridor: Redrawing the Levant Map

Created with data from Openstreetmaps, Mapbox, and Natural Earth. All Rights Reserved, Geopolitical Monitor.

Israel’s ‘David’s Corridor’ project would undermine the Axis of Resistance, secure access to critical resources, and fundamentally reshape the demographic and political realities of the Levant in a way that’s favorable to Israeli strategic interests. But realizing the vision will not be easy.

Fragmenting the Internet: The Geopolitics of Data Sovereignty

Code globe, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 20, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Strategic data sovereignty regulations are fragmenting the global digital ecosystem, producing real consequences for the future of international trade, particularly in geopolitically sensitive industries like AI and other emerging technologies.

Israel Gaza Reoccupation: Costs, Consequences & Calculus

cc Dan Scavino (1976–) wikidata:Q28076289, modified, On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_and_Benjamin_Netanyahu_at_White_House_2025_%284%29_%28cropped%29.jpg

Israel’s looming reoccupation of Gaza risks prolonging the conflict, weakening Israel's international standing, and destabilizing an already volatile regional order, all while reinforcing divisions within Israeli society over the war’s conduct and objectives.

US GENIUS Act: Crypto Inches toward the Mainstream

Abstraction of US Congress and cryptocurrencies, Generated by Google Gemini on August 5, 2025.

The GENIUS Act reshapes stablecoin regulation by creating a clear, federally regulated environment that balances innovation and risk management, unlocking broader crypto use in the corporate sector, and exposing risks investors must understand.

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