New strikes on Israel show how the line between attacks on Iran and attacks on Iran’s strategic ecosystem is becoming blurred, resulting in new risks, new calculations, and a more complex regional security environment going forward.

The most important outcome of this war is not the ceasefire; it is the emergence of a new regional baseline where Iran is no longer viewed as a manageable competitor but a persistent threat actor that must be contained.

Recent US military movements reflect a recognition that the Middle East is entering a phase of heightened unpredictability, where deterrence is bolstered by increased readiness. But the pivot is not without its risks.

A month of accelerating developments, including missile tests, executions, high-level signaling, and military warnings, illustrate a dangerous reality: both Israel and Iran believe they are prepared, and both are looking to deter the other through strength rather than compromise.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement continues to rack up violations, fueling fears of a new regional conflict in the making.

Recent momentum toward Hezbollah disarmament in Lebanon is encouraging, but optimism should be tempered so long as the core contradictions behind the conflict go unresolved.

The US withdrawal from Iraq’s Ain al-Asad and Victoria bases does not amount to a strategic withdrawal from the Middle East. Rather, it’s a tactical shift intended to put the US military’s long-term presence on a more stable footing.

Iran is a close ally that has long figured prominently in Russian strategic calculus, but events of the past month have weakened the bilateral relationship such that some are now wondering if the Kremlin might be prepared to pivot away.

The geopolitical risk of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz disproportionately falls on Asian states. It’s high time their diplomatic and military strategies reflected that fact.

One of the geopolitical casualties of the Israel-Iran war could be IMEC: a transport corridor linking India to Europe via the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.