Analysis: AKP’s Surprise Election Win in Turkey

November 4, 2015

Geopolitical Monitor

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Just like June’s elections brought a shockingly low seat tally for an AKP party seeking a parliamentary ‘super-majority,’ Monday’s election brought a surprise result of a different sort, with the AKP taking 49% of the vote, an increase of nearly 10% in just five months and enough to form a government without a coalition partner. The result caught many off-guard, as it was well off the consensus prediction of another hung parliament. Instead, the love-or-hate figure of President Erdogan and his party will have a firm grip on power through until 2019.

The election result could have a major impact on Turkish foreign policy, in large part because some of the major decisions made by Ankara earlier this year – the push for an anti-ISIS ‘safe zone’ in northern Syria and the intensification of military operations against the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – were quite possibly influenced by the AKP’s electoral prospects.


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