Sound relations with Israel have been the constant of US Middle East policy for decades. And over the past four years, Trump has proven one of the most pro-Israel presidents ever, allowing the US-Israeli partnership to grow closer than ever before. But the Biden administration will hold starkly different stances on key issues of importance such as Iran and Palestine, and this will reverberate not only in bilateral relations between Washington and Tel Aviv, but across the wider region as well.
Outlook
Palestine and diplomatic normalization
The newly-elected Biden administration will officially enter the White House in January, thus ending the one-term Trump presidency. Trump has arguably been the most pro-Israel President in recent history, if not ever. He openly embraced the foreign policy of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and in large part synchronized with it by advancing an anti-Iran logic on various diplomatic and military fronts. His administration succeeded in brokering deals between Israel and five Arab countries that until then had no formal diplomatic relations with Israel – Sudan, Morocco, Bahrain, Bhutan and most importantly the extremely rich and influential United Arab Emirates (UAE) – thus ending decades of diplomatic limbo. Even though President Trump fell short of securing the most important and ‘spectacular’ deal, namely one between Israel and Saudi Arabia, his overall impact still represents a remarkable change in the Middle Eastern diplomatic context.
With regards to Palestine, President Trump’s peace plan (while not excluding a two-states solution) hinted at a recognition of the controversial Jewish settlement built by Israel in the occupied West Bank. Moreover, Trump also reduced financial assistance to the Palestinian side.
Biden’s approach is expected to differ starkly from Trump’s. While reaffirming America’s ‘ironclad commitment to Israel’s security’ and inviting Palestinian leaders to stop endorsing violence and to recognize Israel’s legitimacy as the ‘historic homeland of the Jewish people,’ Biden insists on the essential importance of the two-state solution, as endorsed by the UN and the large majority of the international community, as the only possible way to put an end to the thorny Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He believes that accepting this outcome will not only reaffirm Israel’s identity as a Jewish and democratic state, but also improve its long-term security by putting an end to those conditions that fuel resentment towards Israel and thus empower extremist groups such as Hamas. Consequently, he wants to diplomatically engage the Palestinian Authority and provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinians (notably in the Gaza Strip); all while prompting Israel to stop the construction of new settlements in occupied areas, to abandon the option of annexation and to recognize the Palestinian quest for an independent state. As a result, in 2021 and as long as Netanyahu or like-minded politicians remain in power in Tel Aviv, Biden’s foreign policy platform will inevitably produce a cooling effect on US-Israeli relations.
