Eurozone growth over the third quarter came in well under consensus estimates. Eurozone economies grew 0.2% over the period, just half of the 0.4% that a recent Reuters poll of economists was expecting. The numbers represent the bloc’s weakest growth in over four years.

There are two major takeaways from the Q3 growth miss. First is the disappointing performance of the Italian economy, which remained stagnant (neither growing nor contracting) over the period. The lack of growth comes at a delicate time for Italy, which is currently locked in a stand-off with the European Commission over its 2019 budget. The miss will undermine Rome’s argument that the 2.4% deficit its’ budget envisions can be offset by growth such that it won’t add a significant amount to Italy’s already-towering debt load. However, the Q3 growth numbers are unlikely to have any short-term impact on the dispute itself, which will continue to unfold through 2019 against the backdrop of new European Parliament elections and an extended process of EU sanctions.

The Italian government caught two big breaks from credit ratings agencies recently. Standard & Poor’s maintained Italy’s BBB debt rating (though it changed its outlook to negative) last week, after Moody’s downgraded it from Baa2 to Baa3. Both ratings left Italian debt above ‘junk’ status. A drop below investment grade was being treated as a real possibility ahead of the announcements.