On July 25, Pakistan’s voters will get their chance to chime in on what the post-Nawaz Sharif era should look like. Will it be the famous former cricketer Imram Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, the scion Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and his Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), or the continuity of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Shahbaz Sharif, brother and perhaps ultimate redeemer of the now-jailed former prime minister Nawaz Shariff?

Whatever the ultimate decision, voters are making their choice under difficult circumstances. Pakistan’s economy is reeling from a currency crisis and now spiking inflation, prompting the central bank to recently raise interest rates from 6.5 to 7.5%. Violence has also been an issue in the lead-up to July 25, evident in the brutal suicide bombing at an election rally in Balochistan that killed over 129 people last week.

Here’s what to watch for as Pakistan heads to the polls:

Background

A dynasty state of mind

When appraising the slate of candidates, it’s hard not to notice the dynastic credentials on display. Heading up the list of the incumbent PML-N is Shahbaz Sharif, the latest Sharif to occupy the top spot of the party. Shahbaz is of course the brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was banned from political life by the Supreme Court in July of 2017 due to ill-gotten family wealth revealed in the Panama Papers disclosure (specifically four luxury flats in London worth tens of millions of pounds). Despite being arrested last week along with his daughter upon return to Pakistan, Nawaz continues to enjoy considerable influence in Pakistani politics and the PML-N party in particular. Shahbaz was tapped to be successor by his brother’s inner circle and not a party-wide vote; this may come back to hurt the PML-N should Nawaz come to personify the rampant corruption of Pakistani politics in the eyes of the electorate. With Nawaz facing 10 years in prison and his daughter facing an 8-year stint herself, the election has taken on an existential importance for the Sharif dynasty. For his part, Nawaz Sharif is blaming the deep state for his problems and is warning that the military wants to nudge voters away from PML-N. Yet despite the corruption scandals and the country’s poor economic performance of late, PML-N has maintained a narrow lead in the polls through most of 2017 and 2018.