The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic trends around the globe.

The 2017 US-Mexico Bilateral Showdown Kicks Off

The Trump administration has revealed a set of harsh new guidelines on the deportation of illegal immigrants. The revelation came in a memo from the Department of Homeland Security, which calls for new, sweeping powers to target the country’s 11 million illegal immigrants for deportation. Where the Obama administration only targeted illegals that had been convicted of serious crimes, the new guidelines target those who were convicted – or accused – of any crime, along with the broadly subjective ‘those who pose a risk to public or national security.’ So basically: anyone, depending on the mood of the executing officer. The memo also calls for the hiring of 10,000 new agents to help execute the crackdown, and makes it easier for state authorities to carry out orders from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

This all comes before US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and DHS Secretary John Kelly arrive in Mexico for talks with President Enrique Nieto and other top officials. Apart from the obvious bones of contention – the border wall and mass deportation of Mexican nationals – a major sticking point is likely to be the fact that the new DHS guidelines allow for the deportation of non-Mexican nationals into Mexico.

For a sign of the troubles to come, look no further than Kelly’s reasoning for the trip: ‘to run the Mexican government through the new guidelines.’ Whether by mistake or design, the visit will do nothing but inflame an already tenuous bilateral relationship. The reason is simple: it takes two to tango. That Washington just came up with its own new set of rules in itself doesn’t guarantee success – there’s two sides of the border. If Mexico doesn’t opt in, and by all current indications it won’t, it can thwart the US dragnet indirectly via its own inaction. Two recent examples of the importance of a bilateral approach to border control are Libya and Turkey; both cases show that it takes a cooperative government on the other side of the border to stem the flow of immigrants.