The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

Philippines’ Duterte Launches Administration’s Foreign Policy by Calling US President Obama ‘Son of a Whore’

In a way, Duterte’s cussing out of the the US president, calling Obama a ‘son of a whore’ in response to a question about extrajudicial killings in his country, is not a surprising development given the arc of the ‘colorful’ politician’s rise to power. But in another way it actually is: usually the bombast is reserved for the election trail, for the consumption of domestic voters.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte took his show on the road to the ASEAN summit in Laos last week, and the diplomatic damage was immediate. Lacking any face-saving alternative, the Obama administration cancelled what was supposed to be the first face-to-face meeting between these two leaders of treaty-bound and nominally allied states.

Duterte has since apologized and said the comment was nothing personal. Instead, in his very own ‘Trump of the East’ style, he shifted the blame to the more nebulous US state department and its’ “mouthing” on human rights.

In a stark contrast to his approach to the US, Duterte struck a conciliatory chord toward China – a country that is aggressively pushing territorial claims against the Philippines in the South China Sea. On this issue, Duterte’s bluster was distilled into: “better to continually engage China in a diplomatic dialogue rather than anger officials there.” Quite the difference.

A distinctly pro-China vein has been apparent in Duterte from the very beginning of the campaign which saw a little-known mayor of Davao rise to the highest office in the land. This recent spat with President Obama, along with Duterte’s hesitance in holding Beijing to account on the Scarborough Shoal (which has recently seen an increase in Chinese boat activity, potentially a sign of increased reclamation activities in the near future) – both of these developments fit into the overall drift away from Washington. Expect Duterte to ride out China’s stonewalling of the ruling by the International Court of Arbitration and then to begin bilateral negotiations on the issue, negotiations where the Philippines will be at a massive disadvantage.

The one key factor to watch here is that a populist upsurge doesn’t force Duterte’s hand to get tough with Beijing. PLA Navy activities in the South China Sea are hugely unpopular there and any escalation from Beijing could trigger a popular reaction beyond Duterte’s control. Should this happen, Manila would need to pivot back to Washington to achieve some semblance of leverage against China. Luckily by then there will be a new president in office, one that (probably) hasn’t been called a ‘son of a whore’ by the sitting president of the Philippines.

Merkel’s CDU Loses Big in German Regional Elections

The results are in for elections in the northeast German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and they will surely ring alarm bells in the Merkel camp.

In the polls, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was beaten by the right-wing, anti-Islam Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which took 20% of the vote to the CDU’s 19%. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) came out on top with 30% of the vote.

The results suggest a growing backlash against the Merkel government’s policies, particularly its acceptance of large numbers of refugees from the Syrian conflict. It also suggests a growing skepticism towards the European project – a trend that is not restricted to Germany by any stretch of the imagination.

The AfD has benefitted directly from Merkel’s declining fortunes. If current trends continue, it will be a force to be reckoned with in 2017 parliamentary elections, and could well land it in the position of kingmaker between the SPD and the CDU. However, it’s also possible that, as in other EU countries with budding right-wing movements such as Austria, the AfD will pick up protest votes in local and regional elections, only to be spurned in national elections by a public not yet willing to hand over the reins of power to these untested parties.

Only time will tell, but Angela Merkel’s push for a fourth term certainly won’t come easy.

Russia to Hold State Duma Elections on September 18

Russia heads into its next ‘managed’ election on September 18. And ahead of the polls, the management is starting to show. According to the New York Times, Russia’s only independent polling house – the Levada Center – was shut down last week for being a ‘foreign agent.’ Just before being shut down, it had released polling data showing that United Russia was losing traction with the electorate, dropping to 31% support in August after registering 39% in July.

The result of these elections is not in question: United Russia will win, benefitting as it does from a system that at every step pushes for its victory. What isn’t so certain is how many votes it will win by – essentially how realistic it is as perceived by opposition supporters – and the reaction to the result. Recall that the aftermath of 2011 Duma elections took many by surprise both inside and outside Russia when thousands of people took to the streets to protest the result of the polls.