The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.
Tough-Talker Duterte Pulls Ahead in the Philippine Presidential Race
An unlikely front-runner has emerged in the race to become the Philippines next president: Rodrigo Duterte, a mayor who is short on political pedigree and long on the type of bombastic sound-bites that one might expect from US president nominee Donald Trump.
Duterte has made a name for himself in the presidential field by saying the wrong thing at the wrong time, whether in regard to the death squads operating in his city of Davao: “How did I reach that title among the world’s safest cities? Kill them all”; or with regard to women: “I have two wives and two girlfriends.”
A May 2 poll from Pulse Asia put Duterte comfortably in the lead with 33% of voters. With election day less than a week away, it seems increasingly likely that Duterte will pull off a surprising upset thanks to his platform of being tough on crime, corruption, and the Philippine’s adversaries in the region.
Duterte’s stance on China is predictable given his brusque style. He has campaigned on a hard line towards China should Beijing not accept the result of an international tribunal over its territorial claims in the South China Sea. If China continues to push its claim on the Scarborough Shoal, Duterte has pledged to “ride a jet ski and plant a Philippine flag there in their port.”
Yet a greater willingness to stand up to China has not been accompanied by a warming with Washington in Duterte’s case. The candidate remains somewhat aloof of the US-Philippine security alliance, remarking last year that the “US would never die for us.” He also joked about severing ties with the United States and Australia amidst the diplomatic fallout from a joke about getting “first chance” to rape Australian missionary Jacqueline Hamill, who was gang-raped and murdered in a Philippine prison in 1989.
The prospect of a Duterte presidency has not been received terribly well by markets in the Philippines so far. Investors have been buying up dollars amidst political uncertainty, driving down the value of the peso. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has dropped 2.8% in the past seven days as Duterte’s lead in the polls solidified.
