Tensions are spiking between the Trump administration and the Iranian government, with the chances of a military miscalculation or limited exchange of fire increasing with each passing day.

Earlier this week a US carrier strike group was dispatched to the Persian Gulf. At the time there were concerns of a possible Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Since then it has emerged that there were rumblings of a possible attack by Iran’s Iraq-based proxies against the 5,000 US troops currently stationed in the country.

Then on May 8, President Hassan Rouhani declared that Iran would be suspending its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal, ending sales of surplus enriched uranium to outside parties. Rouhani further warned that production of highly-enriched uranium would resume within 60 days if other signatories to the deal failed to shield Iran from mounting US pressure.

The Trump administration’s attempt at “maximum pressure” is evidently working, and the Iranian regime is getting desperate. But will the final result be capitulation to Secretary of State Pompeo’s “12 demands” or a military miscalculation that ignites a new wildfire in the Middle East?

Impact

What makes the present situation so dangerous is the unlikelihood of cooler heads prevailing on either side.

The US hardline policy is motivated by several factors, including appeasing regional allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia, targeting Jewish votes in domestic elections (perhaps unrealistically), and score-settling by journeymen regime-changers like National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This is all buttressed by President Trump’s personal enmity toward the Iranian regime, which was seemingly formed in opposition to his predecessor’s hope for rapprochement. Of course, maintaining a hard line against Iran continues to be a default position up and down the US foreign policy establishment, with many officials still harboring vivid memories of the 1979 Revolution.

A similar brand of hardline intransigence exists on the Iranian side of the equation.