Now over six weeks removed from the Khashoggi assassination in Istanbul, the long-term future of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin-Salman (MBS) remains intact.
The prince has relied on the backing of powerful friends over this period, namely US President Donald Trump and his father King Salman, who is said to dote on the crown prince as his favorite son. Forces aligned against MBS over the past month and a half include an outraged public in various Western countries and figures within the Saudi royal family who regard MBS’ eventual ascension to the throne with growing dread.
For the time being, Mohammed Bin-Salman has weathered the storm. However, the Khashoggi affair could still come back to haunt him in the months and years to come.
Impact
King Salman’s throne speech on Monday ended any immediate peril concerning Crown Prince Mohammed Bin-Salman’s position in the royal family. The speech glossed over the Khashoggi assassination and neglected to mention MBS by name despite a growing international consensus of his direct involvement. It signaled loud and clear that King Salman is standing behind his son. Rumors have long swirled around the health of the 82-year-old king, and MBS is believed to have been exerting careful control over his father’s media diet before the Khashoggi scandal burst onto the headlines. King Salman now apparently believes that the assassination is part of a conspiracy aimed at unseating his chosen successor and destabilizing the House of Saud.
With his father on-side, MBS’ status as crown prince is secure for now. But he will remain politically vulnerable until his ascension to the throne actually takes place.
On one hand, MBS needs to make sure he maintains Washington’s unwavering support. As the Kingdom’s most powerful backer in economic, diplomatic, and military terms, the United States exerts a decisive if indirect influence on Saudi royal politics. It’s here that MBS has benefitted a great deal from his close relationship with the Trump administration. The crown prince has proven amenable to President Trump’s concerns (tweets) on OPEC policy, and he has continued the Saudi tradition of seeking to purchase every US weapon platform on offer. From the onset of the scandal, President Trump has signaled that he would not be abandoning the crown prince – who incidentally has also become very close with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. More recently, Trump has reportedly refused to listen to the audio of the Kashoggi kill tape. And, continuing one of his own idiosyncratic traditions of lending a sympathetic ear to the repudiations of self-interested parties, he has exonerated MBS from being involved in the hit after the crown prince denied it to him “maybe five times.”
