Interest rate normalization in the United States and European Union was always going to impact emerging economies by diverting hot money flows back to safer returns in the developed world. But the unknown factor was: How big of an impact would it have? Would this be a slow and gradual rebalancing, or a panicked flight of bank runs, debt defaults, and in extremis a new systemic contagion in the global financial system. Some analysts are now finding portents of the latter in Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis.
The Turkish lira is currently down 6-7% on Monday, now having lost over 40% of its value this year.
Here are some key trends to consider when assessing Turkey’s contagion threat: