The rules governing the scramble for the Arctic are beginning to crystalize and surprisingly enough they indicate a peaceful process of conflict resolution going forward.

The past few years have provided  us with several instances pointing to potential military conflict over the Arctic: Russia’s flag-planting photo-op, the resumption of long-range bomber flights, the scrambling of Canadian CF-18s, and smatterings of tough talk from the governments of Canada and the United States, just to name a few. Yet, the picture emerging as of late is one of accord among Arctic nations. This trend is likely to continue, as it is in the best interest for Arctic states to deal with conflicting claims in a peaceful and orderly fashion, emphasizing closed organizations like the Arctic Council. This will ensure that non-Arctic players like China and the EU won’t have a chance to assert themselves in the Arctic, or even worse, attempt to classify the region as a global commons in the same vein as Antarctica.

Nowhere is the conflict-turned-cordial theme more obvious than in Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s recently-revealed private opinions on the region. This information was made public via the latest round of Wikileaks diplomatic cable disclosures. It seems that, despite a public posture that implies otherwise, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is convinced that there is no possibility of military conflict in the region. He is so sure of this that apparently he came down hard against a NATO presence in the region, deciding that it wasn’t worth giving non-Arctic NATO members influence in an area where ‘they don’t belong.’ The leaked diplomatic cables paint a picture of a Canadian government more interested in capitalizing on public anxieties surrounding the Arctic to garner votes and justify military spending increases rather than one that is smitten with geopolitical anxieties over the future status of its Arctic border.