Opec-Shale Price War News & Analysis

UAE Leaves OPEC: A Structural Realignment in Global Oil Markets?

OPEC Flag. Generated by Google Gemini AI on May 1, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The UAE’s exit from OPEC marks the third member in seven years to leave the cartel. Given looming peak oil demand and OPEC’s dwindling share of global production: it won’t be the last.

US Shale Resilience Piles Pressure on OPEC+

cc rabiem22, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/rabiem/9439668547/in/photolist-fo9LzZ-duuaXE-SZ8ugW-8qdTnh-owkCtB-8qdNxA-2pBB5mF-29beRG6-6TET4u-2gb7QS1-2ocB4Pt-bdD3NP-Urbjxw-2pCFE33-2mU9jk2-fGDVme-HhhneC-hH6iu-26nqdAW-26c5bLM-2jck2hi-dDDBjP-Fpqk4M-QCcae3-2h6Egr5-4X8osL-2gNK6gx-9jijfP-2gdmuNg-hH6gy-25yuFVS-2mJkD2j-9qHyne-EWEeX-5zrw7i-2ofXSZG-2gWNgDw-faZyRv-hoeNG-2kyvqrw-SnLW4w-GLcsLo-3eoe2z-7SSAof-2atY1pE-own9B1-koarPX-2jxyGfz-7vpPyG-7vm152

Not only has US shale survived early attempts by OPEC+ to squeeze out its operations, but it’s now coming for longstanding OPEC+ markets.

Angola: OPEC’s First Domino?

cc http://government.ru/en/news/48659/, modified,

Angola’s departure from OPEC+ is unlikely to move oil markets, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for the future cohesion of the cartel.

FLASH:IEA Reduces Oil Demand Forecast for 2021

Santa Barbara Channel / Ellwood Oil Field. From left to right: Harmony, Hondo, Heritage., cc Flickr Glenn Beltz, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Weak oil demand is projected to persist through the first half of 2021, compounding divisions within the OPEC+ cartel.

Outlook 2021: A Painful Year for Oil Exporters?

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COVID-19 price pressures have savaged the fiscal health of oil producing states. Which ones will be hurting the most in 2021?

2020 OPEC++ Deal Lands with a Whimper

OPECRussiaMeeting, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61703,

Past OPEC+ deals have been long on hype and short on substance, and this one is unlikely to be any different.

Is Belarus Doomed to Dependence on Russia?

BelarusRussiaFlags, cc Flickr Adam Jones, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Minsk has tried to carve out a more independent niche since the Ukraine crisis, but its room for maneuver remains severely constrained.

Wuhan Coronavirus: The Bear Stalks Global Energy Markets?

Central Command Area of Responsibility (Jun. 29, 2003) -- Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq readies itself to receive oil at Mīnā' al-Bakr Oil Terminal (MABOT), an off shore Iraqi oil installation. The supertanker AbQaiq is the first commercial vessel to receive exported Iraqi oil as an off shore customer since 1991, outside of the United Nations' Oil-for-Food programme. AbQaiq is scheduled to take on an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. Navy and coalition forces are helping to provide security, enforcing an exclusionary perimeter around the terminal. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Andrew M. Meyers. (RELEASED) - https://uz.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fayl:Tanker_offshore_terminal.jpg

China’s coronavirus outbreak couldn’t have come at a worse time for oversupplied oil and natural gas markets.

Oil Prices Continue to Creep Upward

030629-N-4790M-001 Central Command Area of Responsibility (Jun. 29, 2003) -- Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq readies itself to receive oil at Mina-Al-Bkar Oil terminal (MABOT) an off shore Iraqi oil installation. AbQaiq is the first commercial vessel to receive a post-war shipment of crude oil for export at Mabot. AbQaiq is scheduled to take on an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. Navy and coalition forces are helping to provide security, enforcing an exclusionary perimeter around the terminal. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Andrew M. Meyers. (RELEASED), https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=oil+tanker&fulltext=Search&fulltext=Advanced+search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&advanced=1&searchToken=c8v9kp7zj8qr2ca6bo8zpklqw#%2Fmedia%2FFile%3AOil_tanker_Abqaiq_in_2003.jpg

Oil traders are bullish in the shadow of pending Iran sanctions, with some projections suggesting a return of $100-per-barrel prices.

OPEC Stabilizes Oil Markets, for Now

Oilwells, cc Flickr Richard Masoner / Cyclelicious, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

In Vienna, OPEC+ displayed its greatest strength… and its greatest weakness.

Global Forecast (05-28-2018)

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Another attempt at Taliban talks in Afghanistan, Venezuela’s oil industry struggles to fulfil its contracts, and Turkey secures a YPG pullout from Manbij.

Outlook 2018: Energy Prices

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Will the energy market of 2018 take its cues from the bearish 2016, or the bullish 2017?

How Long Will OPEC and Russia ‘Play Nice’?

OPEC Russia, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 15, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The OPEC-Russia deal seems to be having its intended effect, but how long will it last?

Geopolitical Risk on Energy Prices Overblown

Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 7, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Supply and demand – not geopolitical factors – will move oil prices through 2017.

Global Forecast (11-29-2016)

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Frantic negotiations in the lead-up to OPEC’s next meeting, a key vote for the European Union in Italy, and a major development in the Syrian civil war.

Canadian Oil Is Building a Wall and Mexico Is Paying for It

Canada oil abstraction, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 8, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Mexico and Canada are waging a silent battle for market share in the US crude oil refining market, and Canada is winning.

Enhanced Oil Recovery: Cleaning up “Dirty” Oil

Global oil market abstraction, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 8, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The vilification of oil is bad for perception but good for business for the largest oil companies.

Iran Could Change the Face of OPEC

OPEC abstract, Generated by Google Gemini on August 4, 2025.

Just as OPEC lost control over global oil production with increased production, technology, and innovation from the US in 2011, Saudi Arabia stands to lose its control over OPEC as Iran’s oil & gas industry opens up to foreign investment.

Suncor (SU) Consolidating Canada’s Oil Sands

Canada oil abstraction, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 8, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Suncor has been taking advantage of the downturn in global energy prices to consolidate its position in Canada's oil sands.

Outlook 2016: The Oil Bust Is Here to Stay

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The worst is yet to come for struggling oil producers.

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