Al-Shabaab News & Analysis

No Leverage, No Exit: Turkey’s Dealmaking in Somalia

cc AMISOM, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud open the new terminal of Aden Abdulle International Airport in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 25. 2015 AMISOM Photo / Ilyas Ahmed / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2015_01_25_Turkish_President_Visit_to_Somalia-1_%2816176887607%29.jpg

Turkey’s dealmaking in Somalia over the past decade tends to be assessed in isolation. But when the whole picture is considered a new model of middle power engagement begins to emerge, complete with new risks and structural dependencies.

Al-Shabaab Remains Active in Southern Somalia

cc AMISOM Public Information, modified, AMISOM Public Information AMISOM & Somali National Army operation to capture Afgoye Corridor Day #5 03 Ugandan soldiers serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are seen on the the back of military trucks 25 May 2012 in the town of Afgoye to the west of the Somali capital Mogadishu as they prepare to deploy south of the town on the road to Merka. An joint-AMISOM and Somali National Army (SNA) offensive has driven the Al-Qaeda-affiliated extremist group Al Shabaab from the strategically important area of the Afgoye corridor, which the group used as a base to launch attacks inside Mogadishu and is also home to hundreds of thousands of refugees. With the extremists gone, the area is now secure for humantarian aid to reach the internally displaced peoples camps and opens the road between the agriculturally productive area of Afgoye and the Somali capital, allowing freedom of movement of goods, produce and people alike. AU-UN IST PHOTO / STUART PRICE.

A recent attack in Jubaland state reflects how the long-running conflict between Mogadishu and Al-Shabaab continues to evolve.

War in Chinese Boxes: Al-Shabaab against ISIS in Somalia

SOMALIA, Mogadishu: In a handout photograph dated 30 April and released by the African Union-United Nations Information Support Team 01 Mayl, a Ugandan soldier of 341 Battalion serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) holds a rocket-propelled grenade at sunrise on the frontline near the main road on the northern edge of Maslah Town, the northern city limit of the Somali capital Mogadishu. AMISOM troops, now numbering 11,400 out of a mandated total of 17,731, supporting forces of the Transitional Federal Government have driven the Al-Qaeda-linked extremist group Al Shabaab out of the Somali capital where life is returning to the seaside city after years of conflict and Somalis are enjoying the longest period of relative peace not experienced since 1991. AU-UN IST PHOTO /STUART PRICE. AMISOM2, cc Flickr AMISOM Public Information, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

Exploring the lesser-known, other face of the Somali conflict.

UN Sounds Alarm over 2017 Somalia Drought

cc Flickr: SomalilandDrought011, modified, Aden Jama takes one of his few remaining goats out to look for pasture. As the drought has worsened he and his family have lost many of their animals and had to move closer to the village and the water trucking site. “Before the drought I had 220 sheep and goats and 12 camels. Now I have 40 sheep and goats and three camels left. The rest have died from the lack of water and pasture. “We used to live 10kms away and come to the village when we needed things. But we’ve had to move closer and closer as the livestock are getting weaker and can’t travel so far. “This is the first time we’ve seen this scale – in the last drought a few animals died but most survived. Now they are so weak that if it rains heavily it might kill them – we will have to shelter them in the house or they would die in the rain. “Our lives depend on our livestock – we have no other skills and there are no other jobs. “In the past the children had milk from the animals. Now they have nothing. They are still ok for now, but you can see them getting weaker. It is almost six months since they ate meat or vegetables. Relatives send us food – we mainly eat rice twice a day, and sometimes maize, tea, flour and bread.” / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oxfam_East_Africa_-_SomalilandDrought011.jpg

Drought and food insecurity have created a humanitarian crisis in Somalia, leading to an uptick in piracy in the Gulf of Aden among other destabilizing developments.

Famine, Al-Shabaab Threaten Progress in Somalia

cc AMISOM, modified, AMISOM Public Information / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AMISOM_%26_Somali_National_Army_operation_to_capture_Afgoye_Corridor_Day_2_22_%287300585116%29.jpg

A famine is threatening a delicate sense of hope in one of Africa’s most dysfunctional states.

Al-Shabaab: A Complex and Resilient Threat

Islamic State flag, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Islamic_State_of_Iraq.svg

Military responses to the al-Shabaab Garissa attacks in Kenya are doomed to fail.

Al-Shabab: The Next Terrorism Brand

cc Amsisom, modfied, / Suspected al Shabab militants wait to be taken off for interogation during a joint night operation between the Somali security services and AMISOM forces in Mogadishu, Somalia, on May 4. AU UN IST PHOTO / Tobin Jones / https://www.flickr.com/photos/au_unistphotostream/14114007504

The Westgate shopping mall attack brought into lurid and tragic detail what African security experts have known all along: Al-Shabab is still a serious security threat to Horn of Africa countries and beyond.

Backgrounder: 2012 Mali Conflict

Generated by Google Gemini on July 29, 2025.

Since early 2012, a violent conflict has been brewing in Mali, one that has forced the international community to consider whether or not this North African country is another Afghanistan in the making.

Somalia: A Turning Point against Al-Shabab?

Generated by Google Gemini on July 29, 2025.

There are plenty of positive signs on both the military and political front indicating that Somalia is about to turn a corner after two decades of instability and conflict.

Islamic Fundamentalism in Africa

Civilian and military personnel from Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. conduct counterterrorism drills, search and rescue operations, and respond to a mock vehicle explosion as part of exercise Eagle Resolve, Mar. 28, 2017, in Kuwait. The training exercises participants' ability to respond as a combined joint task force headquarters staff. Exercise Eagle Resolve is the premier U.S. multilateral exercise within the Arabian Peninsula. (U.S. Army photo by Master Sgt. Timothy Lawn) / https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/NCO-Journal/Archives/2019/April/Extreme-Enemy-Saudi-Arabian-Export/

The proliferation of Islamic fundamentalist groups across Africa represents the latest iteration of the War on Terror.

Yemen: The Next Void

Generated by Google Gemini on July 27, 2025.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s recent statement that he ‘rejects power’ and will step down in the coming days has become somewhat of a common refrain in recent months.

AMISOM Takes Aim at al-Shabab

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

The al-Shabab attack on World Cup revelers in Uganda three weeks ago has served as a wake-up call for African Union leaders.

Al-Shabab Strikes outside of Somalia

cc Shahada News Agency, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Al-Shabaab_military_parade.png

This weekend’s double bombing in Kampala bears all the hallmarks of an al-Shabab attack. It seems that Somalia’s homegrown strain of the Taliban has struck outside its own borders for the very first time.

al-Shabab in Somalia

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

Two major developments occurred in Somalia last week: a merger between the Ras Kamboni Brigade and al-Shabab, and al-Shabab’s long-suspected but hitherto unmade declaration of open alliance with Al Qaeda. Both do not bode well for the survival of the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu.

Collapse of the TFG in Somalia?

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

After decades of anarchy and disintegration, Somalia may once again soon be united, albeit under the banner of a terrorist government.

2008 US-Afghan Taliban Peace Talks

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

The United States has begun signalling a new strategy in the seven-year long Afghanistan War: peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.

War on Terror Extends Somalia’s Crisis

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

A recent Amnesty International report documenting war crimes by US-backed forces in Somalia and US air strikes that have killed more Somali civilians than alleged al-Qaeda operatives underscore Washington’s role in Somalia’s humanitarian crisis.

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