FORECAST
After decades of anarchy and disintegration, Somalia may once again soon be united, albeit under the banner of a terrorist government.
In recent weeks, fighting between Al-Shabaab and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has ramped up in intensity, allowing the Jihadist group to score a series of symbolic and substantive victories.
A high-profile call for foreign fighters to descend on Somalia and aid in the struggle against the Western-backed TFG represents a coming of age for Al-Shabaab. The Islamist group’s rise from the ashes of the Islamic Courts movement was downplayed by many analysts who believed that the group’s Taliban-styled interpretation of Islam would never achieve traction because of the popularity of moderate Islam and the paramount importance of clan and tribal bonds.
Now, Al-Shabaab has thrust itself into the global spotlight as a de facto Al Qaeda proxy. It has seized upon popular disgust surrounding Somalia’s lawlessness and constant foreign interventions to swell its ranks. Recruitment in Al-Shabaab – which means ‘party of youth’ – has also been greatly helped by the demographics of Somalia, primarily in the abundance of disgruntled teenagers. In this regard, Al-Shabaab is working towards a Talibanization of Somali society by holding up the law-and-order appeal of a strict interpretation of Islam in an effort to garner mass support.
Al-Shabaab has also developed a sophisticated modus operandi for conducting attacks. Their recent operation against an AU base in Mogadishu not only reflects this sophistication, but also raises the possibility of breaking the AU’s political will for a deployment in Somalia. If Al-Shabaab’s recent calls for an increase in suicide attacks are heeded and targeted at AU forces, then it is possible that the AU will withdraw and leave the TFG to a swift collapse.
Given these developments, in addition to Al-Shabaab’s territorial foothold throughout much of Somalia and the near-constant fighting in Mogadishu, it seems clear that the TFG is doomed to fall unless one of its foreign patrons launches a new military campaign to prop it up.
Mogadishu falling to Al-Shabaab fighters means consequences for the region and beyond. At the urging of the United States, Ethiopia may once again become actively involved in Somali conflicts as it did in 2006, a development that would pressure the Eritrean government to react in turn and intensify its clandestine support for Al Shabaab and other allied factions. Beyond that, an Al-Shabaab-ruled Somalia will fast consolidate its global position as sanctuary for Al Qaeda fugitives and could also become an exporter of Jihadist ideology and instability in the region.
While officials in the Obama administration are surely watching developments very closely, their policy options for an Al-Shabaab-controlled Somalia are few. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have sapped the political will required to put any more ‘boots on the ground’ in the War on Terror. In the absence of ground troops, Washington will probably initiate a campaign of targeted air strikes against the regime in the same vein as those that killed Al Qaeda operative Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan last week. Such a campaign is apt to do nothing but rally support for Al-Shabaab given the fiercely independent mindset of the Somali public.
While the extent of possible fallout remains uncertain, the collapse of the TFG at the hands of Al Shabaab fighters is now taking on the air of a foregone conclusion.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: September 14 – 21, 2009
WORLD
Investors turned the most bearish on the dollar in 18 months as signs of a recovery in the global economy reduced demand for the currency as a refuge, a survey of Bloomberg users showed Wednesday.
NORTH AMERICA
United States
Private security guards who worked for Blackwater repeatedly shot wildly into the streets of Baghdad without regard for civilians long before they were involved in a 2007 shooting episode that left at least 14 Iraqis dead, federal prosecutors charge in a new court document.
The United States voiced alarm Monday that Venezuela’s weapons purchases may be fueling a Latin American arms race after a deal between Caracas and Moscow to buy tanks and anti-aircraft rockets.
Intelligence activities across the U.S. government and military cost a total of $75 billion a year, the nation’s top intelligence official disclosed on Tuesday, revealing publicly for the first time an overall number long shrouded in secrecy.
The United States on Tuesday put emerging superpower China and former Cold War foe Russia alongside Iran and North Korea on a list of the four main nations challenging American interests.
The United States has pulled back from a plan to build a missile defense system in central Europe that had enraged Russia, after downgrading the threat of a missile attack from Iran, officials said Thursday.
SOUTH AMERICA
Venezuela
President Hugo Chavez said on Wednesday Venezuela signed a $16 billion investment deal with China over three years to raise oil output by several hundred thousand barrels per day in the OPEC member’s Orinoco belt.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
The SAS have been training Libyan elite troops for the past six months, but are unhappy with the deal which they believe could be linked to the release of Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, newspapers reported Saturday.
EASTERN EUROPE
Georgia
Georgia said on Tuesday it would resist any attempts by Russia to detain its ships in the waters of its former province of Abkhazia.
Russia
At least two police were injured on Wednesday when a female bomber blew herself up in an attack on the main street of Chechnya’s capital Grozny.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran
Iran has agreed to talks with six world powers next month on its latest nuclear proposals.
The U.N. nuclear agency has no proof that Iran has or once had a covert atomic bomb program, it said on Thursday, dismissing a report that it had concluded Iran was on its way to producing nuclear weapons.
Israel/Palestinian Territories
A United Nations report issued Tuesday says both Israel and the Palestinians committed actions amounting to war crimes during Israel’s military incursion into Gaza from December 27 to January 18.
EAST ASIA
China
Police in China’s restive Xinjiang have detained six people suspected of plotting “terror” bombings, two months after deadly ethnic unrest rocked the northwest region, officials said Wednesday.
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan
European Union election observers have said that about 1.5 million votes in last month’s Afghan elections – almost a third of ballots cast – could be fraudulent.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has acknowledged that some government officials showed bias towards him in the recent election, though he believes strongly in the integrity of the vote.
Indonesia
Armed Indonesian police stormed an Islamic militant hideout early Thursday in a raid that killed fugitive terror mastermind Noordin Mohammed Top and three other militants, police said.
Pakistan
Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari said Tuesday foreign powers with “interest” in the region guaranteed a “safe exit” to his predecessor Pervez Musharraf.
AFRICA
Somalia
U.S. special forces in helicopters attacked a car in southern Somalia on Monday and killed one of east Africa’s most wanted al Qaeda militants, witnesses and U.S. sources said.
Somali rebels hit the African Union’s main base in Mogadishu with two suicide car bombs on Thursday, killing at least nine people and showing their ability to strike at the heart of the peacekeeping mission.
