It is no secret that the past few years have been difficult for the EU, and the outlook won’t be getting any better in 2019. On the contrary, the bloc’s political crisis seems poised to deepen further. Owing to a combination of social, economic, and political factors, the four main powers in the EU are no longer capable or willing to keep the bloc united and to drive it toward a common future. This theme will surely be reflected in upcoming elections for the European Parliament in May; but there will surely be more shocks to come in 2019, which will harm the Union’s legitimacy in the eyes of Europeans and hinder the EU’s international role and perhaps even threaten its long-term tenure.

Forecast

EU Powerbrokers in Crisis

In spite of the existence of supranational institutions, EU policymaking ultimately depends on the governments of its member states, some of which are more powerful than others. The very voting mechanism of the EU Council reflects that four states hold the most of the political power: Germany, France, the UK, and Italy. Unfortunately for the Union, their opinions are now diverging and no party is in a position to take a leading role in 2019.

The most evident case is the UK. A power which has historically had complicated relations with the EU; it is now in the middle of an arduous negotiating process over the terms of Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May is demanding the Parliament to accept the deal her government has negotiated with the EU, stressing that the agreement is the best possible option for Brexit, and ruling out both remaining in the EU and a “no deal” divorce (the much-discussed “Hard Brexit”). But she is caught between the Europhiles who want to stay in the Union and the staunchest supporters of Brexit who wish to cut any and all ties with it. Also, and considering all this, the upcoming vote on the agreement represents a golden opportunity for opponents to oust her as prime minister, since all her political credibility rests on this process (it should not be forgotten that she was appointed to lead the Brexit process). So, a “no deal” scenario seems the most likely outcome at this point.